Gold gains on safe-haven demand amid US shutdown and trade tensions

• Gold trades higher on Thursday, supported by safe-haven demand as the US government shutdown drags on.
• Investors await September's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could shape expectations of Fed rate cuts.
• US-China trade tensions limit risk appetite, while expectations of monetary easing continue to underpin the yellow metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Thursday, trading around $4,115, up nearly 0.40% for the day. Demand for safe-haven assets remains firm amid the prolonged budget deadlock in Washington and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to support the precious metal, with markets pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Markets are treading carefully ahead of the September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due Friday. This report will attract particular attention as the ongoing government shutdown has led to a shortage of official data. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and temporarily cap Gold's upside, while softer inflation would reinforce expectations of additional interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Traders are also closely monitoring US-China trade discussions. The White House is reportedly considering restrictions on software and technology exports to China, rekindling fears of a trade war. However, the announcement of a meeting next week between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is keeping hopes of de-escalation alive.

On the macroeconomic front, recent speeches by Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr, along with regional activity data from the Chicago and Kansas Feds, will provide additional guidance on the US monetary outlook. In this environment of uncertainty and contained volatility, Gold remains structurally supported by a mix of geopolitical, fiscal, and monetary drivers.