AUD/USD Price Forecast: Stalls below 50-day SMA as buyers struggle to extend gains

• AUD/USD retreats modestly from a two-week high as profit-taking offsets earlier gains fueled by upbeat employment data.
• US Dollar remains soft, with DXY down nearly 0.35%, as traders brace for a wave of delayed US economic releases post-shutdown.
• Technically, AUD/USD remains constructive within a symmetrical triangle, with momentum indicators showing early signs of improvement.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) eases slightly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, reversing most of the early advance after briefly climbing to a two-week high on the back of stronger-than-expected employment data. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is holding firm above 0.6550, with the intraday pullback more likely driven by profit-taking rather than any shift in underlying fundamentals.

The broader tone remains constructive as the Greenback stays on the back foot. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.10, down nearly 0.35% on the day. Traders are turning cautious as the end of the government shutdown clears the way for a flow of delayed US economic data, which could strengthen the case for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December if the releases point to further cooling in the economy.

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD continues to trade inside a well-defined symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. Thursday's retreat comes after the pair briefly tested the descending trendline resistance, which closely aligns with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6560, where sellers re-emerged.

A decisive break above this confluence would signal a bullish breakout from the triangle, potentially opening the door toward 0.6600 and 0.6700.

On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.6520, aligned with the 21-day SMA. A break below this level exposes the ascending triangle base near 0.6480. A sustained move under 0.6480 would flip the near-term bias bearish, bringing 0.6450 and 0.6400 back into focus.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 52, reflecting neutral momentum and showing that neither bulls nor bears have firm control. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is gradually improving, with the histogram turning slightly positive and the signal lines attempting a bullish crossover.