Gold climbs toward $4,250 as shutdown ends, Fed signals temper easing bets

• Gold extends gains above $4,200, marking a five-day winning streak as bullish momentum strengthens.
• Dovish Fed expectations pressure the US Dollar and yields, reinforcing support for the metal.
• Technically, XAU/USD is testing the $4,230-$4,250 resistance zone, with bulls eyeing a breakout toward record highs.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its advance on Thursday, climbing above the $4,200 psychological barrier and notching a five-day winning streak. The precious metal has now retraced most of its corrective decline from the all-time high near $4,381. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,235, up more than 5.50% this week, with upward momentum firmly intact.

A broadly constructive market tone following the deal to end the United States (US) government shutdown has done little to slow Gold's rise. Instead, investors are focusing on the delayed US economic data set to roll out as federal operations resume, which could sharpen expectations for another Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December.

The dovish Fed outlook is weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and keeping Treasury yields subdued, providing an additional tailwind for the non-yielding metal. Overall market sentiment also remains tilted to the upside for Gold, with both macro drivers and technical structure supporting the ongoing bullish trend.

Market movers: Shutdown ends; Fed Collins temper easing expectations

• The record-long US government shutdown, which began on October 1, has officially ended after President Donald Trump signed a stopgap funding measure late Wednesday, shortly after the House passed it in a 222-209 vote. The package restores federal operations through January 30, 2026, while extending funding for select departments until September 30, 2026.
• The resolution has eased immediate fiscal concerns, but traders remain cautious as the short-term patch leaves Washington only weeks away from another funding showdown. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries warned "this fight is not over," adding that Republicans must extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits this year or risk being "thrown out of their jobs next year" along with ending "the speakership of Donald J. Trump once and for all."
• Earlier in the day, Boston Fed President Susan Collins pushed back against expectations of near-term easing, saying there is a "relatively high bar for additional easing in the near term" and that "it is prudent to ensure inflation is durably on track to 2% before making any further policy rate cuts." Collins also warned that more monetary support "runs the risk of slowing or stalling inflation's return to 2%," adding that tariffs could keep inflation elevated into early 2026.
• Following Collins' comments, traders dialed back rate-cut expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price a 53% probability of a December cut, down from 62% a day earlier.
• According to TradingView data, Citigroup's latest gold outlook report, released on November 10, assigns a 30% probability to Gold reaching $6,000 by the end of 2027. The bank's baseline scenario carries a 50% probability and projects prices slipping toward $3,650 in 2026 if US economic conditions improve.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD tests $4,250 as bulls eye record highs

XAU/USD has resumed its prevailing uptrend on the 4-hour chart following a healthy consolidation phase and a brief corrective pullback. The metal is now testing a key resistance area at $4,230-$4,250, which marks the prior breakdown zone. A decisive break above this region would open the door for a retest of the all-time high near $4,381 and potentially fresh record territory beyond it.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $4,200, followed by $4,150, a level that closely aligns with the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). A deeper decline toward $4,050 would expose the 50-period SMA, though any pullback into these zones is likely to attract dip-buying interest as long as Gold holds above the psychological $4,000 level.

Momentum conditions warrant some caution, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in overbought territory near 74, suggesting the risk of a short-lived pullback or sideways consolidation before a potential breakout above $4,250.