AUD/USD bullish breakout potential builds above 0.6600

• US Jobless Claims and 30-year bond auction add complexity to the Fed outlook.
• AUD/USD builds bullish momentum as the pair approaches psychological resistance at 0.6600.
• US Dollar sentiment remains fragile as investors wait for clearer economic signals.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is regaining confidence against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with AUD/USD trading near 0.6580 at the time of writing. The latest move has been supported by a rebound in risk appetite and cautious sentiment surrounding the US Dollar.

US Jobless Claims and 30-year bond auction add complexity to the Fed outlook

Market sentiment in the US was lifted after the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers, which fell to 227,000, their lowest level in seven weeks, reinforcing confidence in the labor market's resilience.

However, Continuing Claims rose to a fresh multi-year high, hinting that rehiring may be slowing, adding nuance to the inflation-labor trade-off narrative.

Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, struck a cautious tone on Thursday. Musalem noted that the labor market is near full employment but warned that recent US tariffs could reaccelerate inflation.

Echoing this, Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday revealed that most officials were hesitant to cut interest rates in the near term, citing uncertainty around the duration and intensity of tariff-induced inflation.

Separately, the 30-year US bond auction, held on Thursday, cleared at 4.889%, its highest since early June. The result suggests soft demand for long-dated Treasuries and reinforces upward pressure on yields, a headwind for non-yielding assets like Gold, though it did little to derail AUD strength.

AUD/USD bullish breakout potential builds above 0.6600

The AUD/USD daily chart displays a bullish outlook, supported by a recent Golden Cross, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 200-day EMA, a positive sign for buyers.

The pair is trading within an ascending channel and is currently threatening a break of support, found at the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6550.

A successful breakout above the psychological resistance level at 0.6600 could pave the way for further gains toward the November high, around 0.6680, and the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.6722.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 59, indicating bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at 0.6480 and the 200-day EMA at around 0.6438 provide strong dynamic support. If these levels fail to hold, the price may fall toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement, located near 0.6428. Overall, the technical structure favors continued upside as long as price remains above key moving averages and within the rising channel.