Dow Jones Industrial Average holds onto near-term highs on Monday

• The Dow Jones gapped into fresh highs on Monday, but topside momentum remains restrained.
• President Trump warned that he would not delay his already delayed reciprocal tariffs any further.
• Trump staffers continue to tease trade deals with other countries, but details remain thin.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gapped into fresh 19-week highs at the start of the new trading week, testing above 44,000 for the first time since mid-February. Equity markets opened the week on a bullish note, and indexes are clawing back into record high territory despite some trade and budget headwinds from the Trump administration.

Canada rescinded its looming digital service tax over the weekend after President Donald Trump table-flipped all trade talks with Canada last Friday. Despite the cross-border services tax having been proposed in 2019 and then signed into Canadian law in 2024, the Trump administration pivoted to considering the tax on US services that cross international borders as a hard no-go last week.

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Donald Trump also reiterated that he would not be canceling or delaying his already-delayed reciprocal tariffs any further, which are due to come back into effect on July 9. After announcing a wide-reaching bundle of tariffs in April, the Trump administration quickly pivoted, tacking on a 90-day extension to give countries time to negotiate trade deals that Donald Trump deems acceptable. Hard numbers on any pending trade deals remain functionally non-existent, but Trump staffers claiming that large trade deals are just around the corner has become a matter of routine.

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Dow Jones price forecast

Monday marks the last day of trading in the second quarter, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to continue grinding its way back into record highs posted in late 2024 just north of the 45,000 major price handle. Equity indexes took a nosedive in April, but the Dow Jones has recovered firmly, rebounding over 20% bottom-to-top.

The major equity index tested chart territory above 44,000 for the first time since February. However, the Dow Jones could be poised for a break: bullish momentum has carried the Dow deep into overbought territory according to technical oscillators, and prices have outrun the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at their fastest pace since November of 2024.

Dow Jones daily chart