WTI extends rally for fourth day as OPEC+ output hike offsets US inventory build

• WTI climbs for a fourth straight day, buoyed by supply-side optimism despite a larger-than-expected US inventory build.
• EIA data showed US Crude inventories rose by 3.72 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts of a 2.25 million-barrel build.
• OPEC+'s modest 137,000 bpd output hike eases oversupply fears, providing a supportive backdrop for prices.

WTI Crude Oil is extending its recovery for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the market staging a fresh leg higher immediately after the release of the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change report.

At the time of writing, the US benchmark is trading around $62.25 per barrel, up nearly 0.80% on the day, adding to the rebound from last week's four-month low near $60.00.

The EIA data showed US commercial crude inventories rising by 3.72 million barrels, above the expected 2.25-million-barrel increase. While the headline figure points to a build in supplies, market attention remained firmly anchored on OPEC+'s smaller-than-expected production hike of 137,000 barrels per day for November, which has eased fears of a supply glut and provided a supportive backdrop for prices.

Even so, the upside remains constrained by structural headwinds. The EIA raised its forecast for US crude production in 2025 to a record 13.53 million barrels per day, underscoring the likelihood of ample supply ahead.

Geopolitical risks also remain in focus. Market participants are watching for potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, including lingering Iran-Israel tensions and the risk of attacks on Oil infrastructure in Iraq, while uncertainty over Western sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude flows keeps traders on alert.

On the technical front, WTI remains vulnerable as it continues to trade below its key moving averages. Immediate support lies near $61.50, with a break below exposing last week's low around $60.00. On the upside, any recovery attempts are likely to face initial resistance near the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.78, followed by the 50-day SMA around $63.26, which needs to be cleared to confirm a stronger recovery. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.3 remains neutral, suggesting consolidation could persist before a clearer directional move emerges.