Select Language

USD/MXN Price Forecast: Finds resistance around 19.20 ahead of nine-day EMA

Breaking news

USD/MXN Price Forecast: Finds resistance around 19.20 ahead of nine-day EMA

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.06.05 13:42
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Finds resistance around 19.20 ahead of nine-day EMA

update 2025.06.05 13:42

  • USD/MXN may find support around the eight-month low at 19.16.
  • The RSI remains below the 50 level, strengthening the bearish bias.
  • The pair may target the primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 19.27.

USD/MXN inches higher after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 19.20 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart's technical analysis suggests a prevailing bearish bias, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel pattern.

The USD/MXN remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating weaker short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 level, indicating a strengthening bearish bias.

On the downside, the USD/MXN could target the eight-month low of 19.16, which was recorded on June 4. A break below this level could prompt the pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel pattern at 18.55.

The nine-day EMA at 19.27 appears as the initial barrier, followed by the descending channel's upper boundary around 19.40. A break above this crucial resistance zone would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the USD/MXN pair to test the 50-day EMA at 19.62.

A break above the 50-day EMA would improve the medium-term price momentum and prompt the USD/MXN pair to target the seven-week high at 19.78, which was marked on May 6.

USD/MXN: Daily Chart

Mexican Peso FAQs

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country's central bank's policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring - or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries - is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico's central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.


Date

Created

 : 2025.06.05

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.05

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

GBP/USD dips from 1.3770 high as US PCE, sentiment data lift Dollar

The GBP/USD retreats by over 0.10% after hitting a near four-year high of 1.3770 on Thursday, dipping to 1.3700 as the US Dollar recovers some ground following the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May.
New
update2025.06.28 00:39

EUR/JPY rally continues as market eyes break above 170.00

The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday, with the EUR/JPY pair climbing toward levels not seen since July 2024.
New
update2025.06.27 23:54

Dollar Index remains weak as core PCE inflation rises, Personal spending fall

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is nearing 97.00 support as investors digest the latest batch of inflation data released out of the United States.
New
update2025.06.27 22:56

NZD/USD extends winning streak, nearing fresh year-to-date highs

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth straight session on Friday, buoyed by broad-based Greenback weakness.
New
update2025.06.27 22:04

Gold suffers another setback following a US-China trade truce, ahead of PCE inflation report

Gold (XAU/USD) is suffering another setback after reports telling that China and the United States have reached a trade deal.
New
update2025.06.27 21:19

Fed's Kashkari: The Fed might cut rates twice this year

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, noted that he was sticking to his view that cooling inflation would allow the Fed to cut its policy rate twice that year, beginning in September.
New
update2025.06.27 21:17

Platinum continues to catch up with Gold - Commerzbank

There's no stopping the price of Platinum: Yesterday, it climbed above the $1,400 per troy ounce mark for the first time since September 2014, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen and commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht note.
New
update2025.06.27 21:10

JPY flat vs. USD and lagging G4 peers EUR and GBP - Scotiabank

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down marginally against the US Dollar (USD) and trading around the midpoint of its range since early April, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.06.27 21:05

Central banks intend to buy more Gold - Commerzbank

Gold remains in high demand among central banks. According to a survey published a few days ago by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), a third of the 75 central banks surveyed plan to buy Gold in the next 1-2 years, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2025.06.27 21:03

GBP is trading unchanged near high - Scotiabank

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also quietly consolidating its latest push to a fresh multi-year high, trading just below Thursday's local top in the upper 1.37s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.06.27 21:01

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel