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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades firmly near $3,650 on firm Fed dovish bets
Gold price (XAU/USD) demonstrates strength near its all-time high around $3,650 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal trades firmly as the Federal Reserve (Fed)seems certain to cut interest rates in the monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
US Dollar Index (DXY) recovery loses steam at 97.80
The US Dollar bounced up from lows earlier on Friday, but upside attempts remain limited below the 98.00 level so far, which keeps price action trapped within the previous day's range, and maintains the broader bearish trend intact.
NZD/USD: Unlikely to be able to break above 0.5990 - UOB Group
There is room for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but it is unlikely to be able to break above 0.5990 today. In the longer run, NZD could break above 0.5990; the scope for further advance may be limited, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
IEA foresees massive oversupply on the oil market - Commerzbank
The International Energy Agency expects a massive supply surplus on the global oil market of 3.33 million barrels per day on average in the coming year, based on its forecasts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
USD/JPY steady in tight range - BBH
USD/JPY trades mid-range after the US Treasury and Japan's Finance Ministry reaffirmed that exchange rates should be market determined. The rare joint statement, the first since 2022 to mention FX, underscored opposition to competitive devaluations, BBH FX analysts report.
AUD/USD: Likely to strengthen further but is unlikely to reach 0.6700 - UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to strengthen further but is unlikely to reach 0.6700. In the longer run, the price action continues to suggest a higher AUD; the next level to watch is 0.6700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
WTI declines below $62.00 on weak demand, oversupply concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.80 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI declines amid concerns over possible softening of US demand and broad oversupply risks.
EUR/USD holds post-ECB gains - BBH
EUR/USD is holding on to most of its post-ECB meeting gains. The ECB left the policy rate steady at 2.00% for a third consecutive meeting (widely expected) and signaled the easing cycle is over. The decision to stand pat was unanimous, BBH FX analysts report.
GBP/USD: Set to test and possibly break above 1.3595 - UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could test and possibly break above 1.3595, but it is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level.
GBP shrugs off weak GDP - BBH
Sterling ignored disappointing UK July GDP data, but a weak growth trajectory paired with sticky services inflation leaves the BOE constrained. With policy room limited, GBP faces headwinds, particularly against the euro, BBH FX analysts report.
EUR/USD has scope to test 1.1760 - UOB Group
Strong rebound in Euro (EUR) has scope to test 1.1760; the major resistance at 1.1790 is not expected to come under threat. In the longer run, EUR could rise but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1650/1.1790, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1019 vs. 7.1034 previous
On Friday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1019 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1034 and 7.1081 Reuters estimate.
USD steadies as stagflation fears mount - BBH
US Dollar (USD) recovered some of yesterday's loss, S&P 500 futures are down after the underlying index hit a record high yesterday, and Treasury yields are up slightly. Markets are digesting ECB guidance and US CPI data, BBH FX analysts report.
USD: Three cuts validated - ING
Thursday's US CPI report showed slightly hotter than expected headline inflation (0.4% MoM), while the more closely monitored core rate rose by 0.3% MoM in line with consensus. What matters the most is the limited tariff impact, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
China says not happy with super-high tariffs Mexico has placed on it now
China's Commerce Ministry said on Friday that the officials are not happy with super-high tariffs that Mexico has placed on China now.
RUB: Another 200bp cut expected today - Commerzbank
The Russian central bank (CBR) meets today for its rate decision: the consensus had originally been split between a 100bp and a 200bp rate cut scenario - but, with more economic weakness and softening of inflation reported, more views have shifted towards the 200bp (down to 16%) option and bets have
EUR: Lagarde doubles down on 'good place' - ING
Thursday's ECB meeting proved more eventful than we had anticipated, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Japan's Kato: Significant that Japan and US reconfirm key points on FX policies
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that the joint statement was significant in light of the new US tariff order, adding that there were no talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on specific foreign exchange (FX) levels.
JPY: Statement with the US emphasises renunciation of FX manipulation - Commerzbank
The US Treasury Secretary and his Japanese counterpart have issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to refrain from 'manipulating FX to gain a competitive advantage', Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.
US Gas stocks rise 71Bcf, above forecasts - ING
EIA data showed US natural Gas inventories increased by 71Bcf last week, exceeding expectations and the seasonal norm. Elevated stock levels and muted demand pushed Henry Hub prices lower in early trading, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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