GBP/USD continues to tread water ahead of UK CPI release

• GBP/USD remains functionally flat in the 1.3150 region.
• Key UK CPI inflation data is due on Wednesday, analysts expect another tick down.
• Backdated US NFP data from before the government shutdown is slated for Thursday.

GBP/USD remains trapped in a rough near-term consolidation zone, with Cable bids cycling the 1.3150 region. The pair has run out of steam after catching a slight bounce from seven-month lows, and the Pound Sterling (GBP) remains functionally unchanged in November.

UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will drop on markets early during the London market session at 07:00 GMT. Core CPI for the year ended in October is expected to tick down to 3.4% from 3.5%, and headline CPI inflation for the same period is forecast to ease back to 3.6% from 3.8%. However, front-loaded CPI inflation for the month of October is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.0%.

September's backdated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, whose release was suspended following the longest US government closure in history, will see daylight on Thursday. Investors are keen to see the figures despite the stale date on the bag as it will serve as one of the few key datapoints available to the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the central bank's next interest rate decision on December 10.

GBP/USD price forecast

GBP/USD continues to trade below both the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which keeps the broader tone on the defensive. Recent candles show a pause after October's sharp decline, with the pair holding above the early November low near 1.3010. The latest sessions show tight trading around 1.3150, with neither buyers nor sellers showing conviction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has drifted higher from oversold conditions but remains below the midpoint, which signals a modest recovery rather than a change in direction. The Stochastic Oscillator has crossed higher but remains in the middle of its range, which fits with the current sideways tone.

In short, the pair is stabilizing after a sharp drop but has yet to clear any meaningful resistance. Investors will likely focus on whether the market can push above the recent swing area near 1.3200 or break back toward 1.3010.

GBP/USD daily chart