WTI strengthens as traders balance surplus forecasts and geopolitical shifts

• WTI trades firmer above $60.00 despite ongoing supply-surplus worries.
• Traders focus on upcoming US sanctions on Russia targeting Rosneft and Lukoil on November 21.
• Technically, price action remains confined within a descending channel, keeping the broader trend tilted lower.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil edges higher on Tuesday, trading around $60.50 and up nearly 1.35% on the day, despite ongoing worries about a widening supply surplus.

Recent projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) have warned that global Oil markets are on track for a period of oversupply, with non-OPEC output growth and softer consumption expected to weigh on balances into early 2026.

At the same time, geopolitical pressure has eased slightly after Russia's Novorossiysk export operations resumed, removing part of the risk premium that had temporarily supported crude following last week's disruption.

Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the next round of US sanctions targeting Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which are scheduled to take effect on November 21. US President Donald Trump has signaled he is prepared to sign legislation imposing broader sanctions on Russia, provided he retains final decision-making authority over any such measures.

He added that it was "OK with me" that Republicans are drafting a bill aimed at countries that continue doing business with Moscow, citing Russia's failure to show meaningful progress toward a Ukraine peace agreement.

From a technical perspective, WTI continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the daily chart. The broader trend remains tilted to the downside as long as the channel's upper boundary stays intact. Prices have now broken above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $59.97, offering a mild improvement in near-term momentum.

On the upside, the $61.00-$61.50 region acts as the first major barrier. This zone aligns with the descending channel's upper trendline and a former horizontal support now acting as resistance, an area that has repeatedly capped gains since late October. A daily close above this region would be the first sign of a structural shift, opening the door toward the 100-day SMA near $62.80.

On the downside, immediate support lies at Monday's low near $59.22, followed by last week's trough at $58.12. A decisive break below this area would reinforce the bearish bias and expose the October 22 low near $57.31, with additional downside risk extending toward the broader October swing low around $56.00.

Momentum is neutral, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 50, signaling a lack of strong directional conviction and suggesting WTI may continue to consolidate unless a fresh catalyst drives a breakout.