Silver edges higher as risk-off mood, Fed uncertainty drive demand

• Silver benefits from renewed risk-off sentiment as global equities retreat.
• Persistent divergence within the Fed complicates expectations for upcoming policy decisions.
• Traders await delayed US data releases, especially Thursday's September NFP report.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher on Tuesday, trading around $50.70 at the time of writing, up 1.00% on the day. The precious metal is supported by a broad risk-off tone across markets, with investors favoring safe-haven exposure as risk assets come under pressure. This cautious mood comes ahead of long-delayed US economic releases, most notably the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Thursday.

Global equities are broadly lower, fueling demand for defensive assets. Investors remain hesitant as the flow of US macroeconomic indicators has been disrupted in recent weeks, complicating assessments of real-time labor market momentum. The upcoming NFP report keeps market participants on hold, mechanically reinforcing the appeal of precious metals.

Diverging commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials adds another layer of uncertainty. Governor Christopher Waller struck a distinctly dovish tone, describing the labor market as "weak" and near "stall-speed." He reiterated that a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting would provide "additional insurance" against the economic slowdown. By contrast, several other Fed members signaled caution, arguing that it may still be premature to ease policy while inflation remains above target.

This divergence is reflected in market pricing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a December rate cut now stands at 46.6%, down sharply from 66.9% one week earlier. Investors expect the gradual release of the statistical backlog to improve visibility. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 232,000, while Continuing Claims rose to 1.957 million for the week ending October 18, reinforcing signs of cooling labor conditions.

In this environment of partial macro uncertainty, Silver benefits from its safe-haven characteristics. Expectations of medium-term monetary easing from the Fed, although reduced, continue to provide structural support for the metal, while political and economic uncertainty sustains steady but cautious demand.