EUR/CAD falls toward 1.6250 as BoC caution boosts Canadian Dollar

• EUR/CAD struggles as the Canadian Dollar gains on a cautious tone surrounding the BoC policy outlook.
• The commodity-linked CAD may face renewed downward pressure amid softer crude oil prices.
• The Euro may find support as investors remain cautious about the ECB's near-term monetary policy outlook.

EUR/CAD continues its losing streak for the third successive session after losing its daily gains, trading around 1.6260 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross depreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains on the cautious tone surrounding the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy stance.

Canada's annual inflation cooled to 2.2% in October, but core measures monitored by the BoC stayed close to the 3% mark. Combined with firm labour data, unemployment at 6.9% and wage growth around 4%, underlying price pressures remain elevated, reinforcing the central bank's cautious stance. Markets widely expect the BoC to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026.

However, the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may struggle against its peers amid lower crude Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price stalls its three-day rally, slipping to around $59.60 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices softened amid renewed oversupply concerns after an ING report projected a significant market surplus lasting through 2026. Goldman Sachs also echoed this view on Monday, noting that a production surge could maintain a roughly 2 million-barrel-per-day surplus, likely weighing on Oil prices over the next two years.

The EUR/CAD cross may regain its ground as the Euro (EUR) could further receive support from the cautious sentiment surrounding the near-term European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, supported by stable economic performance and inflation near target.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Olli Rehn noted on Saturday, cautioning that the risk of slowing inflation should not be overlooked, though upside risks remain. Rehn emphasized the need for strong bank buffers and a vigilant policy stance. ECB policymaker Olaf Sleijpen said on Monday that the central bank could be forced to adjust monetary policy if a run on stablecoins were to send shockwaves through the economy.