WTI retreats to near $59.50 on oversupply forecasts, sanctions could limit downside

• WTI price dips as oversupply concerns resurface following an ING report forecasting a substantial market surplus through 2026.
• Goldman Sachs warned that a production surge could sustain a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day.
• Oil prices may regain support as US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil take effect on November 21.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price stalls its three-day rally, slipping to around $59.60 per barrel during Asian hours on Tuesday. Prices softened amid renewed concerns about oversupply after an ING report projected a significant market surplus through 2026. Goldman Sachs also echoed this view on Monday, noting that a production surge could maintain a roughly 2 million-barrel-per-day surplus, likely weighing on Oil prices over the next two years, per Reuters.

The broader outlook for Oil prices remains bearish as both OPEC and non-OPEC producers ramp up output while demand growth slows. OPEC+ recently approved a 137,000 barrels per day increase in its December production target, matching the hikes for October and November, and agreed to pause further increases in the first quarter of 2025.

The prices of the black Gold also came under pressure after Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed loadings on Sunday, following a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian attack. Still, ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure keep uncertainty elevated, with markets assessing their potential long-term impact on Moscow's crude exports.

However, the Oil prices may regain support as US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, set to begin on November 21. These measures have already pushed major buyers, including China, India, and Turkey, to halt purchases and seek alternative suppliers.

Additional geopolitical risks continue to offer some support to crude prices, including export disruptions from recent attacks in Sudan, Iran's seizure of a tanker in Gulf waters last week, and the possibility of US military action in Venezuela.