USD/JPY rebounds toward nine-month highs as US Dollar steadies

• USD/JPY rebounds toward nine-month highs as the US Dollar stabilizes.
• US data uncertainty grows after officials warn that the October CPI may not be released.
• Traders monitor intervention risk as the Yen trades near sensitive levels.

USD/JPY trims early losses on Friday, with the pair rebounding toward nine-month highs as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 154.70, recovering from an intraday low near 153.60 and remains on track for modest weekly gains.

In the United States, market sentiment improved after the federal government reopened, although the underlying tone remains cautious. Investors continue to grapple with uncertainty over the release of delayed economic data following the record-long shutdown.

US Labor Secretary Chavez-Deremer said on Friday that the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to fully gather the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, raising the possibility that the report may never be published. She added that the September employment report had been collected but still needs to be processed, with officials hoping it can be released next week.

Meanwhile, expectations for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts have cooled as policymakers repeatedly emphasized that inflation remains their key concern despite signs of a weakening labor backdrop. A series of measured comments from Fed officials this week has prompted markets to pull back on aggressive easing bets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut has fallen to around 49%, down sharply from 94% one month ago.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid said on Friday that monetary policy should "lean against demand growth," adding that current Fed policy is "modestly restrictive," which he believes is appropriate. Schmid also noted that he prefers to focus on the overall inflation rate when setting policy and said the cooling in the labor market likely reflects structural changes.

On the Japanese side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure as the new government led by Sanae Takaichi signals a more aggressive fiscal approach. This, combined with the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious stance toward monetary policy tightening, has kept the currency on the back foot.

Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the negative effects of the weak Yen are becoming more visible and that the government is watching currency moves with a high sense of urgency. With USD/JPY trading near sensitive levels, markets are staying alert to the risk of intervention if the Yen weakens too quickly.