NZD/USD climbs on softer US Dollar, RBNZ easing limits Kiwi rebound

• NZD/USD climbs toward 0.5680, supported by renewed downside pressure on the US Dollar.
• US inflation risks curb expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains likely, limiting Kiwi upside.

NZD/USD trades higher around 0.5680 on Friday, up 0.60% on the day at the time of writing. The pair benefits from a softer US Dollar (USD) as investors remain cautious ahead of the resumption of key US macroeconomic releases, which were delayed due to the recent government shutdown. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stays near its two-week low, reflecting ongoing downward pressure on the Greenback.

On the monetary policy front, markets have recently scaled back expectations for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve (Fed), as several officials reiterated the need to bring above-target inflation back under control.

However, uncertainty surrounding upcoming data releases, including whether October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published, keeps the US Dollar vulnerable. US Labor Secretary Julie Chavez-Deremer indicated that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may be unable to release the CPI report due to incomplete data collection during the shutdown. Investors expect that once the backlog is cleared, the figures could reveal further labour-market softness, potentially adding pressure on the USD.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) also finds support from slightly better-than-expected Chinese figures, after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 2.9% YoY increase in Retail Sales in October. Still, the upside remains limited by weak domestic fundamentals. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points at the October meeting, while the Unemployment Rate climbed to 5.3%, its highest level in nearly nine years, strengthening expectations of additional easing this year.

Against this backdrop, the Kiwi's current rebound appears primarily driven by US Dollar weakness rather than improving New Zealand fundamentals.