Gold steady as markets balance Fed rate cut hopes with easing US shutdown risk

• Gold holds near three-week highs as dovish Fed expectations keep bullish momentum intact.
• US government shutdown deal trims safe-haven flows, but long-term fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks keep Gold bid.
• Technically, Gold's near-term bias stays positive above $4,100, with resistance at $4,150 and a deeper support zone at $4,050.

Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bullish tone on Tuesday, extending Monday's sharp advance as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations continue to underpin sentiment. However, the precious metal lacks strong follow-through buying as optimism builds that the record-long United States (US) government shutdown is nearing an end, tempering some safe-haven demand.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near three-week highs around $4,140, up nearly 0.7% on the day.

Although progress toward reopening the US government has improved the market mood, investors remain cautious. A government reopening may ease short-term worries but is unlikely to resolve deeper fiscal and economic challenges.

With the government gradually reopening, the delayed release of key economic data is expected to resume, which could strengthen the case for additional monetary policy easing if the figures confirm further signs of slowdown in the US economy.

Against this backdrop, and with persistent geopolitical risks, Gold's broader outlook remains constructive, with buyers likely to stay active on dips.

Market movers: US shutdown deal and mixed China trade news steer markets

• The US Senate voted 60-40 on Monday to end the record-long government shutdown that began on October 1. The vote followed a bipartisan deal reached on Sunday, with several Democrats breaking from party leadership to join Republican lawmakers. The bill will head to the House of Representatives for final approval on Wednesday, after which it will be sent to President Donald Trump for signature.
• The temporary funding deal will keep the US government operating only until January 30, leaving the risk of another partial shutdown if Congress fails to reach a longer-term agreement. Any new federal spending is expected to be financed through additional borrowing, at a time when the national debt has already climbed above $38 trillion.
• Mixed trade headlines kept investors cautious as Beijing sent conflicting signals. China announced plans to expand market access for US companies and removed "special port fees" on American-operated vessels for one year. However, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that China is working on a new export-control plan that would allow rare-earth magnet exports to civilian buyers but restrict shipments to US companies linked to defense or military use.
• Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the United States is "pretty close" to reaching a trade deal with India that would lower tariffs on Indian goods. He added that talks with Switzerland were also progressing. Bloomberg reported the same day that Switzerland is close to finalizing an agreement that would reduce US import tariffs on Swiss exports to about 15% from the current 39% applied since August.
• Looking ahead, the US economic calendar remains light on Tuesday, though the ADP Employment Change four-week average is due for release later in the day. Trading volumes are expected to stay thin amid the Veterans Day federal holiday, while a busy lineup of Fed speakers is scheduled for Wednesday.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates near $4,150 after bullish breakout

XAU/USD finally broke out of its two-week consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,050 on Monday, confirming a bullish breakout. The metal now faces immediate resistance near $4,150. A decisive move above this level could strengthen bullish momentum toward $4,200 and potentially pave the way for a retest of the all-time high around $4,381.

On the downside, $4,100 acts as the first line of support, followed by stronger support near $4,050, which marks the upper boundary of the previous range. The 100-period moving average, currently around $4,046, also reinforces this area.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed into overbought territory, currently near 73, suggesting that bulls should remain cautious. A brief pullback or sideways consolidation cannot be ruled out before Gold attempts its next leg higher.