USD/JPY posts modest losses below 153.00 despite trade optimism

• USD/JPY edges lower to around 152.75 in Tuesday's early Asian session.
• Trade optimism might boost market sentiment and cap the downside for the pair.
• The Fed and BoJ interest rate decisions will be in the spotlight later this week.

The USD/JPY pair trades with mild losses near 152.75 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the potential downside might be limited by optimism over a potential US-China trade deal. Traders will closely monitor the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision and the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping will be the highlights.

The US and China reached a preliminary agreement that would prevent a new round of tariffs and keep critical rare earth mineral supplies flowing to the US from China. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that "I really feel good" about a deal with China, after officials unveiled a slew of agreements to ease tensions.

Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping later on Thursday to decide on the framework of a trade deal. Positive developments to defuse trade tensions could boost risk appetite and undermine safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its meeting ending on Wednesday. This would be the second rate reduction of the year, bringing the Federal Funds Rate target range down to 3.75% to 4.00%. Most economists anticipate additional rate cuts later in the year and into 2026.

On the JPY's front, the expectation that Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would maintain expansionary spending policies and resist early tightening could weigh on the JPY and create a tailwind for the pair. Reports suggest Takaichi may unveil a major stimulus package as soon as next month, potentially exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion Yen program aimed at easing inflationary pressures on households.

The BoJ is broadly expected to hold its interest rate steady at 0.5% at its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday. Traders will closely monitor the guidance from BoJ Governor Ueda following the meeting for fresh impetus.