USD: The Fantastic Five Fed Chair Candidates - Commerzbank

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced the five final candidates to succeed Fed Chair Powell, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Bessent unveils shortlist for next Fed Chair

"They include current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and his board colleague Michelle Bowmann, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House economic advisor Kevin Hasset, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. There are no surprises on the list; these names have been mentioned repeatedly in recent weeks. As a result, the markets have not reacted so far."

"However, it should also be clear that the US president is likely to select only a candidate whom he can be sure will be loyal to him. In the current environment, that means someone who supports substantial interest rate cuts. This may not seem relevant at the moment, given that the US Federal Reserve has already begun to lower its interest rates anyway. Another step is expected this week."

"But as I have emphasized in the past, the politicization of the Fed will only become apparent when a dilemma between its two mandates, inflation and the labor market, becomes more apparent. We expect this to happen in the coming months as inflation continues to rise which should lead pressure on the USD to rise."