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: 2025.10.23
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EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1600 as US Dollar bounces back, US inflation data in focus
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EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1600 as US Dollar bounces back, US inflation data in focus
New
2025.10.23 14:41
2025.10.23 14:41
2025.10.23 14:41
- EUR/USD falls marginally to near 1.1600 as the US Dollar recovers after a slight correction.
- Washington prepares to curb exports of software-powered products to China.
- Investors await the US CPI data for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
The EUR/USD pair ticks lower to near 1.1600 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after Wednesday's corrective move.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, rises to near 99.00.
The US Dollar rebounds despite growing concerns over bilateral trade relations between the United States (US) and China. On Wednesday, a report from Reuters showed that Washington is planning to block software-powered exports to Beijing in response to export controls imposed by China on its rare earth minerals. The scope of US software export controls to China would cover a long list of goods, as a number of products are built with US software.
On the domestic front, investors await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Market participants will pay close attention to the US inflation data, as a number of economic data releases have been canceled due to the ongoing government shutdown.
The inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders remain confident that the Fed will reduce interest rates in both policy meetings remaining this year.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly calm on expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its Deposit Facility rate at 2% by the end of 2026. In the October 15-22 Reuters poll, 57% of economists voted that the ECB will not change interest rates before 2027.
Going forward, the next major trigger for the Euro will be the monetary policy announcement by the ECB on October 30.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China's economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
Last updated
: 2025.10.23
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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Could target record highs on a successful break above 177.00
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 177.00 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that bullish bias is strengthening as the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern.
New
2025.10.23 18:07USD/JPY: Interim upside risks - OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade higher post-parliament vote but the move higher was also driven by the broad rebound in USD, instead of just policy uncertainty. Pair was last at 152.59 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
New
2025.10.23 18:03TRY: We expect a sizeable rate cut again today - Commerzbank
The median consensus on Bloomberg anticipates a 100bp rate cut by the Turkish central bank (CBT) today, to 39.50% repo rate. But there is a wide range of analyst forecasts - ranging from unchanged to 250bp rate cut.
New
2025.10.23 17:59BoE: Over the hump? - Standard Chartered
Recent data flow - particularly wage growth and CPI - supports our December rate cut view. Risk of Nov cut rising but MPC is likely to wait for budget; risk of delay to Feb depends on incoming data.
New
2025.10.23 17:56USD: Holding pattern - ING
Based on yesterday's price action, we reiterate our view that the USD's rebound is getting tired and probably requires some hawkish repricing to keep going. As discussed over the week, we don't think tomorrow's US CPI will offer that opportunity as we expect a consensus 0.3% MoM core print.
New
2025.10.23 17:54EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.1580 and 1.1625 - UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1580 and 1.1625. In the longer run, downward momentum is building; EUR is likely to trade with a downward bias, potentially retesting the 1.1540 level, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
2025.10.23 17:47AUD/USD gains sharply to near 0.6510, broadly remains confined ahead of US inflation data
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.3% higher to near 0.6510 during the European trading session on Thursday.
New
2025.10.23 17:45TRY: Uncertain size of rate cuts after higher-than-expected inflation - ING
The Central Bank of Turkey will decide on another rate cut today. We expect a 150bp rate cut to 39%; however, the story is more unclear than usual.
New
2025.10.23 17:40USD/CHF eases from 0.7980 following the release of the SNB minutes
The US Dollar remains firm against the Swiss Franc.
New
2025.10.23 17:37Gold: Bulls need to reclaim 4130 - OCBC
Gold has yet to recover after the steep decline from all-time high, but pace of decline is starting to moderate. XAU last seen at 4114.34 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
New
2025.10.23 17:33Disclaimer:
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