EUR/GBP gains as UK labor market weakness, French political risks weigh

• EUR/GBP holds positive ground above 0.8700 after UK employment data.
• The UK Unemployment Rate rises to 4.8% while wage growth slows, reinforcing bets on more interest rate cuts by the BoE.
• Political uncertainty in France could limit Euro's upside.

The EUR/GBP price remains on a firm footing on Tuesday, trading around 0.8710, up 0.40% for the day at the time of writing. The British Pound (GBP) weakens after softer-than-expected UK labor market data, which strengthens market expectations for further monetary easing by the Bank of England (BoE).

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to August, up from the previous and forecasted 4.7%. The Claimant Count Change increased by 25,800 in September, signaling further signs of cooling labor demand. Meanwhile, Average Earnings Excluding Bonus slowed to 4.7% YoY in the June-August period, the weakest pace since May 2022.

Analysts at ING noted that these figures confirm a sustained cooling of the UK labor market. Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said that "a November BoE cut now looks unlikely. But December - after the Autumn Budget - is more in play than markets are pricing."

In the Eurozone, the single currency benefits only modestly from a slight improvement in German economic sentiment, while lingering political uncertainty in France continues to weigh on investor's confidence. French President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister, but opposition leaders immediately filed a no-confidence motion, with the vote scheduled for Thursday. This instability limits the Euro's (EUR) rebound potential, even as the British Pound weakens.

Investors will keep a close eye on France's upcoming budget presentation due on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. According to ING, as long as the French political situation remains unsettled, "the Euro is unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound."