Select Language

EUR/USD edges up amid US data blackout and cautious markets

Breaking news

EUR/USD edges up amid US data blackout and cautious markets

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.10.02 16:57
EUR/USD edges up amid US data blackout and cautious markets

update 2025.10.02 16:57

  • The Euro edges up to 1.1740 but remains trapped within previous ranges.
  • The US Dollar has found some support despite the weak employment data and rising bets of Fed rate cuts.
  • Investors to focus on the Eurozone's Unemployment Rate and US Challenger Job Cuts data.

EUR/USD is trading with moderate gains, right above 1.1750 at the time of writing on Thursday, but still trapped within a tight range below 1.1760 for the third consecutive day. The US Dollar remains on the defensive amid rising bets of back-to-back Federal Reserve (Fed ) interest rate cuts, though risk appetite remains subdued, which keeps Euro (EUR) upside attempts limited.

US economic data released on Thursday was mixed. The ADP Employment Change showed an unexpected decline in September, adding pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates further over the upcoming months. Manufacturing activity, on the other hand, improved slightly above expectations, yet with new orders and employment steady at low levels, revealing the negative impact of tariffs.

With the US government closed amid a budget standoff, the Labor Department will not release the US jobless payrolls report, and, most likely, neither Friday's key Nonfarm Payrolls. In Europe, August's Unemployment Rate is the only event worth mentioning, while in the US, the Challenger Job Cuts could gather particular interest.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.12% -0.03% 0.01% 0.03% -0.11% -0.48% -0.09%
EUR 0.12% 0.08% 0.12% 0.13% 0.00% -0.25% 0.00%
GBP 0.03% -0.08% 0.06% 0.03% -0.05% -0.32% -0.05%
JPY -0.01% -0.12% -0.06% 0.00% -0.13% -0.59% -0.07%
CAD -0.03% -0.13% -0.03% -0.00% -0.15% -0.36% -0.11%
AUD 0.11% 0.00% 0.05% 0.13% 0.15% -0.31% 0.05%
NZD 0.48% 0.25% 0.32% 0.59% 0.36% 0.31% 0.42%
CHF 0.09% -0.01% 0.05% 0.07% 0.11% -0.05% -0.42%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Daily digest market movers: FX markets remain rangebound in the absence of US data

  • The Euro Dollar remains trading within a 50-pip range above 1.1710. Recent Eurozone data have not been particularly supportive, and the US Dollar remains steady despite the downbeat employment figures and rising bets of Fed rate cuts. Investors seem to be wary of taking excessive risks, awaiting developments from the US regarding the government shutdown.
  • On Wednesday, the US Supreme Court dismissed US President Donald Trump's order to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and allowed her to remain in her position at least until January, when the court is expected to hear Trump's arguments. This sentence backs the Fed's independence and represents a significant setback to the president's attempts to control the central bank.
  • US economic data, however, continues to point to further monetary easing. Wednesday's ADP employment report revealed a net loss of 32K jobs in September, against expectations of a 50K increase. Beyond that, August reading was revised to a 3K decline from the 54K rise previously estimated, adding to evidence that the US labor market is deteriorating sharply.
  • September's US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed that business activity improved to 49.1 from 48.7 in August. The final data beat estimates of a 49.0 reading, but new orders declined to 48.9 from 51.4, and employment contracted at a 45.3 level, easing the optimism about the headline reading.
  • Recent data and the US government shutdown have prompted traders to increase their bets on immediate Fed rate cuts. Chances of a quarter-point easing in October are practically fully priced, with a 99% chance according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, while the odds for another such cut in December have increased to 86%, from 60% one week ago.
  • In Europe, September's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed expectations of an acceleration to a 2.2% year-on-year rate, from 2% in August, while the core reading continued to grow at a steady 2.3% yearly rate.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD resistances at 1.1760 and 1.1795 keep holding bulls

EUR/USD Chart



EUR/USD immediate bias remains bullish, but technical indicators point to a weakening momentum, as bulls remain capped below the broken trendline. The 4-hour chart Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 is close to the 50 neutral level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is crossing below the signal line.


Bulls were rejected at the 1.1780 area on Wednesday, a few pips below the mentioned reverse trendline, now around 1.1795. A successful break of that level is needed to cancel the broader bearish trend from mid-September highs and shift the focus towards the September 23 and 24 highs, near 1.1820.

To the downside, immediate support is at the 1.1710-1.1715 area, which contained bears on Tuesday and Wednesday. Further down, last week's lows at the 1.1645-1.1655 area and the September 2 and 3 lows, near 1.1610, would come into focus.

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates - or the expectation of higher rates - will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB's 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone's economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.


Date

Created

 : 2025.10.02

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.10.02

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

USD/CNH is expected to consolidate between 7.1200 and 7.1380 - UOB Group

US Dollar (USD) is expected to consolidate between 7.1200 and 7.1380. In the longer run, for the time being, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1000 and 7.1480, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.02 19:31

GBP gains on hot inflation expectations - BBH

Pound Sterling (GBP) is firmer against USD and steady versus EUR after the BoE's September survey revealed a surprise uptick in inflation expectations.
New
update2025.10.02 19:28

USD/JPY: Sharp declines appear excessive - UOB Group

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 146.70 and 148.00. In the longer run, sharp declines appear excessive, but USD could drop to 146.30. The odds for a continued decline below this level are not high, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.02 19:25

USD/CHF drifts away from 0.7975 highs despite soft Swiss inflation data 

The US Dollar is trimming Wednesday gains on Thursday, pulling back to session lows near 0.7950. The generalised US Dollar weakness has offset the negative impact on the Swiss Franc from softer-than-expected inflation data.
New
update2025.10.02 19:22

USD slides as labor data disappoints - BBH

USD remains under downside pressure against most major currencies. Global equity markets continue to edge higher while bond markets are treading water. The September US Challenger job cut announcement data is today's highlight (12:30pm London, 7:30am New York), BBH FX analysts report.
New
update2025.10.02 19:13

ECB's Kazaks: Current interest rate level is very appropriate

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Thursday that "current interest rate level is very appropriate."
New
update2025.10.02 18:54

USD/JPY returns below 147.00 amid generalized Dollar weakness

The US Dollar has reversed earlier gains against the Japanese Yen, and retreated below the 147.00 level on the European morning session, turning negative on daily charts and hitting session lows at 146.75 so far.The pair has come under increasing bearish pressure, with the US Dollar losing ground ac
New
update2025.10.02 18:45

BoE DMP Survey: UK firms' inflation expectations seen higher at 3.5% in the September quarter

The latest Bank of England (BoE) Decision Maker Panel (DMP) quarterly survey released on Thursday showed that "one-year ahead expected CPI inflation by the UK firms edged slightly higher to 3.5% in the quarter to September."
New
update2025.10.02 18:22

Dow Jones futures remain steady as traders expect brief government shutdown

Dow Jones futures hover near 46,700 during European hours on Thursday, ahead of the regular session opening in the United States (US). However, the S&P 500 futures advance 0.17% to stay above 6,750, while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.37% to break above 25,100.
New
update2025.10.02 18:17

NZD/USD: Likely to test 0.5840 before the risk of a pullback increases - UOB Group

There is a chance for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to test 0.5840 before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, NZD has likely moved into a 0.5770/0.5865 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.02 18:12

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel