Select Language

Forex Today: Uncertainty grips markets as US government shutdown continues

Breaking news

Forex Today: Uncertainty grips markets as US government shutdown continues

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.10.02 16:45
Forex Today: Uncertainty grips markets as US government shutdown continues

update 2025.10.02 16:45

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, October 2:

United States (US) lawmakers failed to find a middle ground to end the government shutdown on Wednesday, feeding into uncertainty. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Thursday, with the USD Index edging lower for the fifth consecutive trading day. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders data for August, which were scheduled to be released later in the day, will be delayed until the US government funding is restored. Instead, investors will pay close attention to Challenger Job Cuts report for September.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.42% -0.74% -1.56% -0.00% -1.09% -0.88% -0.16%
EUR 0.42% -0.33% -1.31% 0.41% -0.67% -0.47% 0.26%
GBP 0.74% 0.33% -0.89% 0.75% -0.40% -0.14% 0.57%
JPY 1.56% 1.31% 0.89% 1.62% 0.53% 0.57% 1.47%
CAD 0.00% -0.41% -0.75% -1.62% -1.03% -0.88% -0.18%
AUD 1.09% 0.67% 0.40% -0.53% 1.03% 0.20% 0.90%
NZD 0.88% 0.47% 0.14% -0.57% 0.88% -0.20% 0.86%
CHF 0.16% -0.26% -0.57% -1.47% 0.18% -0.90% -0.86%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

On Wednesday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) announced that payrolls in the private sector declined 32,000 in September. Additionally, the August print of 54,000 got revised down to -3,000. Other data from the US showed the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged higher to 49.1 in September from 48.7 in August. The Prices Paid Index component of the PMI survey declined to 61.9 from 63.7, while the Employment Index recovered slightly to 45.3 from 43.8. In the European session on Thursday, the USD Index edges lower toward 97.50, while US stock index futures trade mixed.

After rising to a weekly high near 1.1780 on Wednesday, EUR/USD lost its traction in the second half of the day to close virtually unchanged. The pair holds its ground in the European morning and trades at around 1.1750. Eurostat will publish the Unemployment Rate data for August later in the session. On Wednesday, the data from the Euro area showed that the core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.3% on a yearly basis in September, matching the market expectation.

GBP/USD builds on its weekly gains and stretches higher toward 1.3500 in the European morning on Thursday.

Gold came in within a touching distance of $3,900 on Wednesday and set a new record-high before correcting lower in the American session. XAU/USD stays relatively quiet and fluctuates above $3,850.

USD/JPY lost more than 0.5% on Wednesday and closed the third consecutive day deep in negative territory. The pair stabilizes at around 147.00 in the European morning on Thursday. Early Friday, labor market data will be featured in the Japanese economic calendar.

Risk sentiment FAQs

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms "risk-on" and "risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a "risk-on" market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a "risk-off" market investors start to 'play it safe' because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

Typically, during periods of "risk-on", stock markets will rise, most commodities - except Gold - will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a "risk-off" market, Bonds go up - especially major government Bonds - Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are "risk-on". This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of "risk-off" are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world's reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them - even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.


Date

Created

 : 2025.10.02

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.10.02

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

AUD/USD is neutral for now - UOB Group

Further consolidation appears likely; softer underlying tone suggests a lower range of 0.6585/0.6625. In the longer run, Australian Dollar (AUD) is neutral now, and it is likely to trade between 0.6545 and 0.6655 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.02 18:04

GBP: Some risk premium is building - ING

EUR/GBP corrected lower on some EUR long squeezing yesterday, but seems to be lacking bearish momentum to trade back to 0.860, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
New
update2025.10.02 18:01

GBP/USD: Likely to consolidate in a range of 1.3455/1.3525 - UOB Group

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.3455/1.3525. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3360 and 1.3525, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.02 17:58

EUR: Inflation pickup to keep doves quiet - ING

Eurozone inflation accelerated yesterday, with headline CPI hitting 2.2% while core stayed at 2.3% for the fifth consecutive month, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
New
update2025.10.02 17:56

USD/JPY: Bias to lean against strength - OCBC

USD/JPY consolidated this morning, after 4 sessions of back-to-back decline. Pair was last at 147.10 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
New
update2025.10.02 17:51

EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.1700 and 1.1760 - UOB Group

Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1700 and 1.1760. In the longer run, EUR is likely to trade between 1.1675 and 1.1790 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.02 17:44

EUR/USD: Likely to consolidate on the day - OCBC

Euro (EUR) traded subdued in absence of fresh catalyst. CPI picked up to 2.2% y/y but well within consensus. Pair was last at 1.1752 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
New
update2025.10.02 17:42

US: The third government shutdown under President Trump - UOB Group

The US government began shutting down on 1 Oct 2025 after US congressional leaders failed to agree to a short-term funding bill beyond the 30 Sep US fiscal year-end due to disagreement on healthcare subsidies and other policy demands.
New
update2025.10.02 17:33

WTI Oil remains capped below $62.00 on oversupply fears, US shutdown  

The US Benchmark West Texas Intermediate is trading at $61.80 per barrel at the time of writing.
New
update2025.10.02 17:29

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rises to near 0.5850 after breaking above nine-day EMA

NZD/USD extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 0.5840 during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart's technical analysis shows that short-term price momentum has strengthened as the pair trades above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
New
update2025.10.02 17:28

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel