Created
: 2025.10.02
- English
- English
- What's Myforex
- Share
- Use tools
- Get information
- What's New
- Help center
- About us
- Customer support
- Terms and policies
-
-
PortfolioShare your portfolio and performance in real time -
Events & contestsEvents and contests held by retail brokers around the world
-
-
Real-time spread comparisonCompare spreads of major retail brokers in real time -
Volatility analysisVisualize volatility as a measure of daily market activity -
Swap point comparisonCompare buy and sell swap values for each broker by symbol -
Market rates & chartsCheck prices for all instruments offered by each broker -
IndicatorsProviding in-house developed indicators for MT4/MT5 -
Trading calculatorsCalculation tools for each broker to help you trade
-
-
World FX newsLatest news on forex and cryptocurrencies from around the world -
Broker informationTrading information of retail brokers worldwide -
MetaTrader4/5 user guideUser guide collection for the latest MetaTrader4/5 -
Economic calendarRelease calendar for indicators from official sources of major economies
When is the Australian Trade Data and how could it affect AUD/USD?
World FX news
Breaking news
When is the Australian Trade Data and how could it affect AUD/USD?
New
2025.10.02 08:30
2025.10.02 08:30
2025.10.02 08:30
The Australian Trade Data Overview
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its data for August on Thursday at 01.30 GMT. Trade surplus is expected to narrow to 6,500M MoM in August, compared to 7,310M in the previous reading.
Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
How could the Australian Trade Data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a positive note on the day in the lead up to the Australian Trade Data. The pair gathers strength as the US Dollar weakens after private-sector jobs in the world's largest economy contracted last month, boosting expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates two more times this year.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the September 30 high of 0.6628. The next resistance level emerges at the September 11 high of 0.6665, en route to the September 16 high of 0.6688.
To the downside, the September 19 low of 0.6586 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the September 29 low of 0.6546. The next contention level is located at the September 26 low of 0.6520.
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance (MoM)
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Read more.Next release: Thu Oct 02, 2025 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 6,500M
Previous: 7,310M
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Last updated
: 2025.10.02
Related articles
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Moves above 1.4000, nine-day EMA due to bullish reversal potential
13 minutes agoGBP/JPY extends gains, nearing 204.00 after upbeat UK Retail Sales
16 minutes agoEUR/USD hovers near recent lows ahead of Eurozone PMIs
26 minutes agoForex Today: PMI reports from major economies and US CPI data to lift volatility
35 minutes agoNZD/USD hovers around 0.5750 as traders adopt caution ahead of US CPI data
42 minutes agoAUD/JPY holds positive ground above 99.00 as trade talks boost investor sentiment
46 minutes ago
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
Was this article helpful?
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.
Most viewed
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Moves above 1.4000, nine-day EMA due to bullish reversal potential
USD/CAD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.4010 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential for a bullish reversal as the pair rebounds from the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.
New
2025.10.24 16:19GBP/JPY extends gains, nearing 204.00 after upbeat UK Retail Sales
The British Pound has accelerated its uptrend on Friday, reaching fresh two-week highs in the area of 203.90, buoyed by an unexpected increase of September's UK Retail Sales figures, and is on track to close the week with a o0.8% advance, its best weekly performance since July.
New
2025.10.24 16:17EUR/USD hovers near recent lows ahead of Eurozone PMIs
EUR/USD shows moderate losses on Friday, trading a few pips above 1.1600 at the time of writing, on track for a 0.4% weekly decline.
New
2025.10.24 16:07Forex Today: PMI reports from major economies and US CPI data to lift volatility
Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 24:
New
2025.10.24 15:57NZD/USD hovers around 0.5750 as traders adopt caution ahead of US CPI data
NZD/USD moves little after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 0.5750 during the early European hours on Friday.
New
2025.10.24 15:51AUD/JPY holds positive ground above 99.00 as trade talks boost investor sentiment
The AUD/JPY cross trades on a stronger note near 99.35 during the early European session on Friday. Hope for a US-China trade deal provides some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
New
2025.10.24 15:46EUR/GBP remains subdued near 0.8700 following UK Retail Sales, awaits PMI data
EUR/GBP inches lower after two days of gains, trading around 0.8710 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross holds losses following the United Kingdom (for September.
New
2025.10.24 15:11Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.33 per barrel, down from Thursday's close at $61.60.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $65.04 after its previous daily close at $65.29.
New
2025.10.24 15:07FX option expiries for Oct 24 NY cut
FX option expiries for Oct 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
New
2025.10.24 14:59USD/INR falls while India's flash PMI growth cools down
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair falls to near 87.85 as the Indian Rupee gains amid growing optimism over the trade deal between the United States (US) and India.
New
2025.10.24 14:58Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy
