Created
: 2025.10.02
- English
- English
- What's Myforex
- Share
- Use tools
- Get information
- What's New
- Help center
- About us
- Customer support
- Terms and policies
-
-
PortfolioShare your portfolio and performance in real time -
Events & contestsEvents and contests held by retail brokers around the world
-
-
Real-time spread comparisonCompare spreads of major retail brokers in real time -
Volatility analysisVisualize volatility as a measure of daily market activity -
Swap point comparisonCompare buy and sell swap values for each broker by symbol -
Market rates & chartsCheck prices for all instruments offered by each broker -
IndicatorsProviding in-house developed indicators for MT4/MT5 -
Trading calculatorsCalculation tools for each broker to help you trade
-
-
World FX newsLatest news on forex and cryptocurrencies from around the world -
Broker informationTrading information of retail brokers worldwide -
MetaTrader4/5 user guideUser guide collection for the latest MetaTrader4/5 -
Economic calendarRelease calendar for indicators from official sources of major economies
AUD/USD treads water ahead of Australian Trade Balance data
World FX news
Breaking news
AUD/USD treads water ahead of Australian Trade Balance data
New
2025.10.02 08:12
2025.10.02 08:12
2025.10.02 08:12
- AUD/USD failed to move too far in either direction on Wednesday.
- Australian Trade Balance figures are due early Thursday.
- US government shutdown has crimped the flow of critical inflation and jobs data.
AUD/USD took a breather on Wednesday, churning in place near 0.6620 after a three-day gain streak that saw the US Dollar (USD) rebound from a three-week low of 0.6520 against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The US government has entered it's fourth federal shutdown during Donald Trump's two terms as president, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has warned that it will not be able to deliver the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data amid a federal shuttering.
Australia's Trade Balance is expected to have dipped to 6.5 billion in August. Imports declined 1.3% in July, alongside a 3.3% uptick in Exports during the same period, bringing Australia's July Trade Balance to 7.31 billion MoM. Australian Trade Balance data drops at 01:30 GMT. Australian S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will also land on late on Thursday at 23:00 GMT. Australian Services PMIs are expected to hold steady at 52.0 for September.
This week's hotly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report is at risk of being delayed or suspended. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a government shutdown will result in official dataset releases being suspended until federal operations resume.
ADP Employment Change figures came in much lower than the street expected, showing a contraction of -32K in September versus the expected 50K. August's initial print of 54K was also revised sharply lower to -3K. ADP jobs figures suffer from constant revisions, but the figure has generally missed expectations for all but three of the monthly figures published since the start of 2025.
With the NFP print in jeopardy, investors are leaning further on private data such as ADP. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, rate trader bets of another quarter-point interest rate cut on October 29 surged to 99% post-ADP on Wednesday. Rate markets are also pricing in nearly 90% odds of a third-straight rate trim on December 10, and a further 93% that the Fed will deliver a fourth interest rate cut by next April at the absolute latest.
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Last updated
: 2025.10.02
Related articles
US to provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia -- WSJ
23 minutes agoNZD/USD strengthens above 0.5800 amid US government shutdown fears
31 minutes agoWhen is the Australian Trade Data and how could it affect AUD/USD?
2025.10.02 08:30GBP/USD tests 1.35 as Cable tilts upward
2025.10.02 08:20AUD/USD treads water ahead of Australian Trade Balance data
2025.10.02 08:12USD/JPY extends the decline to near 147.00 as US government shutdown weighs on US Dollar
2025.10.02 08:09
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
Was this article helpful?
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.
Most viewed
US to provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia -- WSJ
The United States (US) will provide Ukraine with intelligence to support long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump approved the move, and US officials are urging NATO allies to do the same.
New
2025.10.02 09:31NZD/USD strengthens above 0.5800 amid US government shutdown fears
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory for the second consecutive day around 0.5820 during the early Asian session on Thursday.
New
2025.10.02 09:24When is the Australian Trade Data and how could it affect AUD/USD?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its data for August on Thursday at 01.30 GMT. Trade surplus is expected to narrow to 6,500M MoM in August, compared to 7,310M in the previous reading.
New
2025.10.02 08:30GBP/USD tests 1.35 as Cable tilts upward
GBP/USD eased into a fourth straight bullish session, briefly tapping the 1.3500 handle before settling back to a sedate 0.27% gain for the day's market sessions.
New
2025.10.02 08:20AUD/USD treads water ahead of Australian Trade Balance data
AUD/USD took a breather on Wednesday, churning in place near 0.6620 after a three-day gain streak that saw the US Dollar (USD) rebound from a three-week low of 0.6520 against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
New
2025.10.02 08:12USD/JPY extends the decline to near 147.00 as US government shutdown weighs on US Dollar
The USD/JPY pair extends its downside to near 147.05 during the early Asian session on Thursday.
New
2025.10.02 08:09GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Tumbles to weekly lows, eyes on 197.00
The GBP/JPY registered three consecutive bearish days so far in the week and opens Thursday's Asian session near the current weekly low of 197.92. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 198.19, virtually unchanged.
New
2025.10.02 07:45Fed's Goolsbee is getting concerned about inflation risks
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Wednesday that although he supports further moves to lower interest rates, he is getting concerned about ongoing inflation pressures, specifically claims about a "one time" inflation bump from tariffs.
New
2025.10.02 07:33EUR/USD holds steady as weak U.S. jobs data offsets shutdown risks
EUR/USD is steady late during the North American session as investors digest a soft jobs report and shrugs off the shutdown of the US government. The lack of an agreement between the White House and Democrats would prolong the shutdown and delay US economic data releases.
New
2025.10.02 07:05USD/CHF struggles to find momentum despite broad Dollar weakness
USD/CHF continues to trudge its way through familiar technical territory, with price action holding stubbornly just south of the 0.8000 major handle.
New
2025.10.02 05:47Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy
