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EUR/USD extends gains with all eyes on Eurozone inflation figures

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EUR/USD extends gains with all eyes on Eurozone inflation figures

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New update 2025.10.01 17:09
EUR/USD extends gains with all eyes on Eurozone inflation figures

update 2025.10.01 17:09

  • The Euro extends gains above 1.1770, buoyed by broad-based US Dollar's weakness.
  • The shutdown of the US federal government keeps the US Dollar on the defensive.
  • In the Eurozone, all eyes are on preliminary inflation figures for September.

EUR/USD extends gains for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, trading at fresh one-week highs beyond 1.1770 at the time of writing. The US Dollar remains on the defensive as the US federal government shut down earlier in the day, due to the two main parties being unable to bridge their differences on funding, while in Europe, all eyes are on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) scheduled at 09:00 GMT.

A last-minute vote in the US Senate failed to pass the Republicans' funding bill, leading to the government's closure. The economic impact should not be significant, unless the situation extends in time. However, it might delay the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, which is a key data point for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision due in late October.

US JOLTS Job Openings data was mixed on Tuesday, showing a slight increase in job vacancies but less hiring. Later today, the ADP Employment Change report is expected to show that private payrolls increased by 50K in September, a poor reading compared with last year's averages and further evidence that employment creation has stalled.

In Europe, the main attraction this Wednesday will be September's preliminary inflation figures, which are expected to show some acceleration. On Tuesday, German consumer prices increased more than expected and boosted speculation of an overshoot in Eurozone HICP, which might endorse the view of the European Central Bank's hawks. Such an outcome might give the Euro an additional impulse.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.19% -0.14% -0.35% -0.05% 0.14% -0.16% -0.22%
EUR 0.19% 0.06% -0.16% 0.14% 0.34% 0.05% -0.04%
GBP 0.14% -0.06% -0.18% 0.07% 0.28% -0.01% -0.09%
JPY 0.35% 0.16% 0.18% 0.31% 0.46% 0.42% 0.22%
CAD 0.05% -0.14% -0.07% -0.31% 0.19% -0.09% -0.17%
AUD -0.14% -0.34% -0.28% -0.46% -0.19% -0.29% -0.36%
NZD 0.16% -0.05% 0.00% -0.42% 0.09% 0.29% -0.08%
CHF 0.22% 0.04% 0.09% -0.22% 0.17% 0.36% 0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).


Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar struggles with the government closed

  • The Euro is capitalising US Dollar's weakness after the US government confirmed the worst expectations and shut down earlier on Wednesday. Recent macroeconomic data releases have failed to improve investors' mood, and barring a positive surprise, the ADP Employment Change report is unlikely to change this mood. The risk for the US Dollar is skewed to the downside on Wednesday.
  • In Europe, all eyes are on September's Eurozone HICP numbers, which are expected to show that yearly inflation accelerated to a 2.2% rate from 2% in August. The core inflation, however, is seen at a 2.3% year-on-year rate, unchanged from the previous month.
  • Data released by Destatis on Tuesday revealed that the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to a 2.4% year-on-year pace in September, from 2.2% in August, beating expectations of a softer increase to 2.3%. Likewise, the HICP grew at a 2.4% pace, from 2.1% in the previous month and above the 2.2% market consensus.
  • In the US, JOLTS Job Openings increased to 7.22 million in August from 7.20 million in July, beating expectations of 7.2 million openings, although the hiring rate eased to 3.2% from 3.3% in July, which adds to evidence of a deteriorating labour market and dampened investors' optimism about the headline reading.
  • Later on Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release its September payrolls report, which is expected to show a net change of 50K new jobs, down from the 54K seen in August and well below the levels beyond 100K seen last year and at the beginning of this one.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD above 1.1760 to target 1.1790

EUR/USD Chart


EUR/USD is under moderate bullish pressure on Wednesday. The 4-hour chart Relative Strength Index (RSI) advances through positive territory beyond the 50 level, currently at 64, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the signal line. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the defensive, correlation studies suggest that further appreciation is on the cards.

Bulls have yet to confirm above Tuesday's highs around 1.1760, which are being tested at the time of writing. Further up, the next target is the reverse broken trendline, now at 1.1790. A successful break of that level would cancel the bearish trend from mid-September highs and shift the focus towards the September 23 and 24 highs, near 1.1820.

To the downside, immediate support is at the 1.1710-1.1715 area, where the pair was contained on Tuesday. Further down, last week's lows at the 1.1645-1.1655 area and the September 2 and 3 lows, near 1.1610, come into focus.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Oct 01, 2025 09:00 (Prel)

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 2.2%

Previous: 2%

Source: Eurostat

Economic Indicator

Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, - released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Core HICP excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The Core HICP is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Oct 01, 2025 09:00 (Prel)

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 2.3%

Previous: 2.3%

Source: Eurostat


Date

Created

 : 2025.10.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.10.01

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