Select Language

ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to show modest advance in US factory sector in September

Breaking news

ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to show modest advance in US factory sector in September

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.10.01 17:00
ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to show modest advance in US factory sector in September

update 2025.10.01 17:00

  • The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is seen edging a tad higher in September.
  • Investors will also follow the ISM Prices index and the Employment index.
  • EUR/USD continues to recover shine lost following last week's lows.

Anticipation is mounting as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) gears up to unveil the September United States (US) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) this Wednesday. This crucial report serves as a vital indicator of the health of the US manufacturing sector, while also offering a window into the broader economic outlook.

Key points to keep in mind:

  • PMI benchmarks: A reading above 50.0 signals an expanding manufacturing sector, whereas a value below 50.0 indicates contraction.
  • Analyst predictions: Experts are forecasting a September PMI of 49.0, marginally above August's 48.7. Following this slight uptick, the index is still expected to remain within the contraction zone.
  • Economic resilience under pressure: While the manufacturing sector remains below the 50.0 threshold, the overall economy's health has been showing signs of resilience, particularly following the final upward revision of the Q2 GDP Growth Rate. It seems key fundamentals continue to cling to the idea of US "exceptionalism". This report not only reflects the pulse of the manufacturing sector but also hints at the evolving narrative of the wider economy.

What to expect from the ISM Manufacturing PMI report?

In August, the manufacturing sector gathered some impulse vs. the previous month, although the index has remained in contraction territory since March.

New Orders surge: The New Orders Index rose to multi-month highs of 51.4, signaling that manufacturers are receiving an increasing number of orders.

Declining costs: The Prices Index continued its downward trend in August, retreating for the second month in a row.

Employment gain: The Employment Index rebounded marginally in August, climbing to 43.8, indicative of a slight improvement although still well below the 50 yardstick.

In general, a PMI reading above 50 signals growth in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below that threshold points to contraction. That said, sustained levels above 42.5 percent can still suggest broader economic expansion.

Stronger manufacturing activity tends to support risk assets such as equities as investors gain confidence in growth prospects. At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) may come under pressure as market sentiment improves and capital shifts toward higher-yielding assets. Encouraging signs such as rising new orders and easing price pressure also reinforce the outlook for continued economic expansion.

When will the ISM Manufacturing PMI report be released, and how could it affect EUR/USD?

The ISM Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT on Wednesday.

Prior to the data release, EUR/USD has managed to extend its bounce from last week's troughs, although extra gains appear to hinge on a stronger catalyst.

Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, explained that further consolidation in EUR/USD should not be ruled out in the short-term horizon, with the lower end around 1.1570 offering decent contention for now. The loss of that region could prompt the pair to attempt a move to the August base at 1.1391 (August 1).

Piovano also noted that on the upside, the pair faces initial resistance at the 2025 ceiling of 1.1918 (September 17). A break above this level could spark a likely challenge of the 1.2000 threshold.

Piovano added that the constructive outlook is likely to persist as long as the spot trades above its critical 200-day SMA at 1.1169.

He also pointed out that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 51, indicating a pick-up in the bullish stance, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 14 suggests that the current trend lacks colour.

Economic Indicator

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

Read more.

Last release: Tue Sep 02, 2025 14:00

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: 48.7

Consensus: 49

Previous: 48

Source: Institute for Supply Management

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.

GDP FAQs

A country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year - such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation's currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country's central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country's central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.


Date

Created

 : 2025.10.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.10.01

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

CHF: Intervention, pharma and the franc - ING

It's been quite a busy week for Swiss news. On Monday, the Swiss National Bank effectively increased the amount of CHF banking deposits exposed to a 0.25bp charge. The press release pitched that as a technical clean-up to last year's adjustment in minimum reserves.
New
update2025.10.01 18:16

GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 1.3415/1.3470 - UOB Group

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range of 1.3415/1.3470. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3360 and 1.3525, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.01 18:09

DXY: ADP, ISM Mfg today - OCBC

US Dollar (USD) traded a touch softer overnight in amid concerns of US government shutdown. DXY last seen at 97.62 levels.
New
update2025.10.01 17:54

EUR/GBP eyes range breakout as momentum builds - Société Générale

EUR/GBP is testing the top of its multi-month range, with momentum still tilted higher. Holding above the 50-DMA at 0.8670 would keep the uptrend intact, targeting 0.8765 and potentially 0.8810/0.8825, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
New
update2025.10.01 17:48

EUR/USD: Consolidation on the daily chart - OCBC

Euro (EUR) continued to trade modestly firmer. Pair was last at 1.1760 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
New
update2025.10.01 17:47

Oil: OPEC+ noise continues to grow - ING

Oil prices extended losses yesterday after reports that OPEC+ may be bringing supply back onto the market at a quicker-than-expected pace, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
New
update2025.10.01 17:44

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: The Pound dives further, approaching 198.00

The British Pound keeps heading lower on Wednesday against a firmer Japanese Yen, and is on track for a more than 1% depreciation in the last three days, following a reversal from the 200.00 level, and is about to test a key support area at 198.00
New
update2025.10.01 17:44

Brent stalls below 200-DMA, downside risks mount - Société Générale

Brent remains capped below its 200-DMA near $70, with repeated failures to break higher raising the risk of another downward leg toward $65 and potentially $63-61, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
New
update2025.10.01 17:42

EUR/USD: A clear break above 1.1760 to stabilize EUR - UOB Group

A clear break above 1.1760 would indicate that Euro (EUR) could trade above last week's low of 1.1645 for a while, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New
update2025.10.01 17:41

Pound Sterling refreshes weekly high against weakened US Dollar amid government shutdown

The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts a fresh weekly high near 1.3480 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar underperforms its peers, with the United States (US) government entering a shutdown.
New
update2025.10.01 17:37

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel