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USD/INR drops as RBI holds Repo Rate steady at 5.5%, raises GDP forecasts

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USD/INR drops as RBI holds Repo Rate steady at 5.5%, raises GDP forecasts

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New update 2025.10.01 14:23
USD/INR drops as RBI holds Repo Rate steady at 5.5%, raises GDP forecasts

update 2025.10.01 14:23

  • The Indian Rupee gains against the US Dollar to near 88.85 after the RBI kept the Repo Rate steady at 5.5%, as expected.
  • The RBI has raised GDP forecasts for the current year to 6.8%.
  • US government shutdown risks keep the US Dollar on the back foot.

The Indian Rupee (INR) attracts bids against the US Dollar (USD) after the monetary policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The USD/INR pair falls to near 88.85 as the RBI has kept the Repo Rate steady at 5.5%, as expected, and has stated that inflationary pressures could remain lower in the wake of Goods and Services Tax (GST) cuts announced by the government in August, which have become effective from late September.

Financial market participants had already anticipated that the RBI would maintain the status quo as it would be needed to perform a delicate balancing act between GST cuts and dampening the export market.

India's export sector has been hit badly since the increase in tariffs to 50% on imports from New Delhi to the United States (US). President Donald Trump raised import duty on Indian products as a penalty in response to buying Oil from Russia.

Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has also warned that higher US tariffs would slow down the Indian export market. "Higher tariffs are likely to moderate export growth," Malhotra said in the monetary policy statement.

With the GST cuts announcement in effect, the RBI has raised the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for the current financial year to 6.8% from 6.5% projected earlier. The RBI has stated that it will continue to maintain a "neutral" stance on interest rates and has revised the headline inflation forecast for FY2026 downwards from 3.1% to 2.6%.

Daily digest market movers: US government shutdown weighs on US Dollar

  • The US Dollar trades cautiously against its peers on the US government shutdown, as Democrats have not supported the short-term funding bill, which was expected to extend the shutdown deadline to November 21.
  • At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, trades mildly around 97.75.
  • On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said, while addressing reporters at the White House, "We'll probably have a shutdown." He also warned that Democrats would bear the consequences as he has the power to cut benefits favourable for them during the shutdown. However, Trump didn't specify any action he is considering now. "They're taking a risk by having a shutdown. We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible," Trump said, Time Magazine reported.
  • The partial shutdown of the US government could halt key economic releases, including the official employment data for September, which has been a key trigger to speculation for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
  • With uncertainty over whether the US Labour and Commerce departments will release key labor market data this week, the significance of the ADP Employment Change data for September publishing at 12:15 GMT has increased. Economists expect the US private sector to have added a fresh 50K workers, marginally lower than 54K in August.
  • Signs of a slowdown in the job market would boost market expectations for more interest rate cuts by the Fed. On the contrary, upbeat labor data would weaken the same. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 94.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates again in the policy meeting later this month.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds key 20-day EMA

USD/INR falls to near 88.85 on Wednesday. However, the near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 88.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above 60.00, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.

Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of 90.00 would be the key hurdle for the pair.

 

Indian Rupee FAQs

The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar - most trade is conducted in USD - and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the 'carry trade' in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries' offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.

Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.

Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India's peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.



Date

Created

 : 2025.10.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.10.01

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