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When is the Japan Tokyo CPI and how it could affect USD/JPY?
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When is the Japan Tokyo CPI and how it could affect USD/JPY?
New
2025.09.26 07:33
2025.09.26 07:33
2025.09.26 07:33
The Japan Tokyo CPI Overview
Statistics Bureau of Japan will publish its data for September on Friday at 23.30 GMT. The Tokyo CPI measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan's overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading.
The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 2.6% YoY as compared to 2.9% in the previous month, while the Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy rose 3.0% YoY in August versus 3.1% prior.
Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food is expected to show a rise of 2.8% YoY in September, compared to the previous reading of 2.5%.
How could the Japan Tokyo CPI affect USD/JPY?
USD/JPY trade on a positive note on the day in the lead up to the Japan Tokyo CPI report. The major pair gains ground as the US Dollar strengthens following the upbeat US economic data, while Federal Reserve (Fed) officials gave mixed remarks regarding the Fed's rate path.
If data comes in hotter than expected, it could lift the Japanese Yen (JPY), with the first upside barrier seen at the 150.00 psychological level. The next resistance level emerges at the July 31 high of 150.84, en route to the March 28 high of 151.21.
To the downside, the July 15 high of 149.02 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the September 24 low of 147.52. The next contention level is located at the August 29 low of 146.76.
Economic Indicator
Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan's overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Sep 25, 2025 23:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.6%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Last updated
: 2025.09.26
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