Fed's Miran: No material evidence of tariff-driven inflation

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran told Fox Business on Thursday that other policymakers are more concerned about tariffs driving inflation than he is, per Reuters.

Key takeaways

"Others on Fed are not accounting for the population growth shock due to immigration changes."

"There are material consequences to the shift from looser immigration to a net drop in immigration."

"AI has a lot of power to drive the economy, but need to be careful about precise estimates of its impact."

"More sanguine about growth than others on the Fed and still have lower rate outlook."

"Deregulation of energy and financial industry will increase economy's potential growth rate."

"Decent shot at 3% growth for the second half of 2025 and into 2026."

"View of rate cuts based on expectation that neutral is being pushed lower by tax policy and immigration."

"Expectation is for shelter inflation to fall in the next six to 12 months."

"Fed needs to be forward looking about the changes underway in the economy."

"The long-term response to the recent Fed rate cut was muted, but do expense them to come down."

"If view is right about tariffs, housing and other issues, then it is important for monetary policy to exit its restrictive stance."

"View going forward is that policy is up 200 basis points too restrictive, should remove that in 50 basis point moves."

"The economy is more vulnerable to downside shocks because Fed policy is too tight."

"In the next 6 months would like the Fed to be a lot closer to neutral; can get there in a series of half point moves."

"Obvious that other people on the Fed do not feel the need to move urgently."

"There is no material evidence of tariff driven inflation, but that seems to be holding up others on the Fed."

Market reaction

These comments received a neutral/dovish score of 4.2 from FXStreet Fed Speech Tracker. Meanwhile, FXStreet Fed Sentiment Index stays in neutral territory at around 100.00.

The US Dollar (USD) Index clings to modest daily gains near 97.90 after these remarks.