Dow Jones Industrial Average churns in place as traders await inflation data

• The Dow Jones stuck close to 45,500 on Monday as investors take a pause.
• Markets are still banking heavily on a Fed rate cut next week.
• Key US inflation data due this week, CPI inflation expected to accelerate again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) churned chart paper on Monday, finding a near-term floor at the 45,400 level. Investors continue to lean into bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver an interest rate cut on September 17.

Other major indexes with larger exposure to tech rally components left the Dow behind on Monday. The Dow Jones held near flat to kick off the new trading week, while the tech-focused Nasdaq climbed into a fresh record high. The Dow is holding steady near record highs above 45,761, but investors are awaiting a fresh turn of the macro data page before stepping back into firmer bids.

Markets maintain bets for upcoming rate cut

Last week's worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report cemented investor expectations that the Fed will trim interest rates next week. However, this week's upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print remains a key barrier. Inflation data has remained stubbornly above the Fed's 2% top-line target, with functionally no progress on defeating inflation for most of the year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) annual benchmark revision for current employment statistics data is also due this week. Over the past decade, benchmark revisions have averaged 0.1% adjustments to final employment numbers, but the ongoing politicization of both the Fed and the BLS by the Trump administration will put any adjustments to figures under a microscope.

BLS benchmark adjustments are slated for Tuesday, with CPI inflation figures due on Thursday.

Dow Jones daily chart