EUR/USD steadies as shutdown fears weigh on Dollar

• Dollar pressured as Senate fails to secure votes to avert looming October 1 government shutdown.
• US job openings steady, while confidence survey highlights growing household pessimism on labor and business outlook.
• Fed officials split on policy path, balancing downside risks to jobs against persistent inflationary pressures.

EUR/USD holds firm on Tuesday during the North American session, although the Dollar weakens due to fears of a possible government shutdown that could disrupt the release of crucial jobs data for Fed officials. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1735 up a modest 0.05%.

Pair holds above 1.1730 despite mixed US data and cautious Fed rhetoric

The financial markets narrative remains focused on the US government being able to doge a shutdown that will begin in October 1. Recently, a US Democratic bill to avoid the shutdown, failed to garner sufficient votes to pass in Senate as the voting continues.

Data-wise, job openings in the US, ticked up but revealed the "no hiring, no firing" environment, highlighted by Fed officials. At the same time, the Conference Board latest Consumer Confidence poll revealed that households turned pessimistic on business and labor market conditions.

Additionally, to this, Federal Reserve officials are grabbing the headlines. Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee said that tariffs are halting business decisions regarding prices or hiring personnel. Boston Fed Susan Collins said that further cuts may be appropriate, but officials need to be wary about inflation.

The Fed Vice Chair Philip Jeffersons revealed that "I see the risks to employment as tilted to the downside and risks to inflation to the upside."

Across the pond, German Retail Sales data for August, improved but disappointed investors falling below the mark monthly; while on a yearly basis, showed that consumer spending is slowing.

Daily market movers: EUR/USD consolidates amid mixed US economic data

• Job openings in the US showed the labor market is slowing, yet vacancies rose from 7.21 million to 7.23 million in August. Digging into the data, the hiring rate edged down to 3.2%, the lowest level since June 2024, while layoffs remained at a low level.
• The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence in September missed estimates of 96.0, dipped from 97.6 in August to 94.2 this month. "Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Monday that a shutdown would delay the announcement of jobs data.
• Fed funds rate futures point to an 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October, with just an 5% chance for keeping rates unchanged, according to Prime Market Terminal's rate probability tool.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD steadies at around 1.1730 awaiting a fresh catalyst

EUR/USD holds steady above the 1.1700 figure during the last three trading days, yet it has failed to edge above the 1.1750 mark, which could open the door for further gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of being flattish near the 50 neutral level.

That said, If EUR/USD clears 1.1740, the next resistance would be 1.1800 ahead of the yearly high of 1.1918. Conversely, a drop below 1.1700 will expose 1.1650, before challenging the 100-day SMA At 1.1605.