WTI Price Forecast: Oil eases after failed attempt to reclaim $63 handle

• WTI edges lower on Monday, trimming earlier gains after facing stiff resistance near $63.00.
• OPEC+ agrees to raise output by 137,000 bpd from October 2025, beginning the rollback of 1.65 million bpd in voluntary cuts.
• The EU is preparing a 19th sanctions package on Russia with the US, targeting banks and Oil trade, adding a geopolitical risk premium.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil edges lower on Monday, trimming earlier gains after a brief rebound from last week's three-month low. At the time of writing, WTI is trading near $61.80 per barrel during the American session, as traders weigh OPEC+'s modest output hike alongside fresh European Union (EU) sanctions risks.

OPEC+ met on Sunday and agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October 2025, marking the first step in unwinding its voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million bpd. The move is noticeably smaller than recent monthly hikes of more than 500,000 bpd, underscoring the group's cautious approach. By opting for a modest increase, the alliance signaled its intent to gradually reclaim market share while avoiding a sharp oversupply at a time when global demand indicators remain fragile.

Meanwhile, political headlines are adding to the mix. EU foreign policy chief António Costa confirmed on Monday that the bloc is preparing its 19th package of sanctions against Russia in close coordination with the United States. EU and United States (US) officials are discussing a new package that could target Russian banks and tighten restrictions on Oil trade, including measures aimed at curbing the use of shadow tankers and sanction-evasion channels.

From a technical perspective, WTI is attempting to stabilize above the $62.00 support zone after last week's sell-off. The rebound is facing a horizontal resistance around $63.00, a former support level that closely aligns with the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 62.85. A decisive break above this area would strengthen bullish momentum and open the way toward the 50-period SMA near 63.66 and the $64.00 handle. On the flip side, failure to clear $63.00 could see WTI slip back toward $62.00, with further weakness exposing the strong support zone around $61.50-61.00.

Momentum indicators point to a tentative recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.20 is climbing from oversold territory but remains below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting bulls are regaining ground cautiously but lack firm control for now. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the 4-hour chart is showing early signs of a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning slightly positive, hinting that upward momentum may be starting to build.

Overall, unless WTI marks a clear break above $63.00, the short-term path of least resistance remains to the downside, with risks of a retest of $62.00 and the $61.50-61.00 support zone.