Select Language

Gold steadies below record highs as traders await US Nonfarm Payrolls

Breaking news

Gold steadies below record highs as traders await US Nonfarm Payrolls

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.09.05 20:21
Gold steadies below record highs as traders await US Nonfarm Payrolls

update 2025.09.05 20:21

  • Gold holds steady around $3,550, consolidating after touching a record high of $3,578 earlier in the week.
  • Traders stay cautious ahead of the August US Nonfarm Payrolls report, seen as the key catalyst for the Fed's next move.
  • Softer US Dollar and falling Treasury yields continue to cushion bullion, keeping it well supported near record levels.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading flat on Friday, holding around $3,550 at the time of writing, as investors turn cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due at 12:30 GMT. The precious metal is consolidating after Thursday's mild correction from record highs above $3,570, with traders choosing to wait for fresh cues from the August US employment report.

Recent labor market indicators have pointed to cooling momentum. ADP private payrolls came out at an increase of 54K in August, below expectations and the previous 106K, while JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.18 million from 7.36 million. Initial Jobless Claims for the latest week came in at 237K, above both expectations of 230K and the prior 229K, underscoring signs of gradual softening in labor demand. Meanwhile, ISM Employment Indexes for both Manufacturing (43.8) and Services (46.5) remain in contraction territory. The string of weak readings has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now more worried about job market risks than persistent inflation.

Taken all together, the data highlight the labor market is losing steam, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will ease policy at its September 16-17 meeting. Markets are already pricing in almost a full 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, but NFP release could prove decisive in determining whether the central bank sticks to that move or considers a larger 50 bps cut to counter slowing growth. For Gold, the combination of subdued Treasury yields, a weaker US Dollar, and the Fed's dovish tilt provides a strong cushion, keeping bullion near record levels.

Market movers: Gold steadies as the US Dollar weakens, yields slide

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, falls towards 98.00, giving back Thursday's gains as traders reposition ahead of the NFP release.
  • Global bond markets eased after recent spikes, with US Treasury yields retreating across the curve -- the benchmark 10-year hovering near its lowest since May 1 at 4.161%, the 30-year slipping to a three-week low around 4.855%, and the rate-sensitive 2-year sliding to 3.590%, also its lowest since May 1. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion, cushioning Gold's downside.
  • The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show job growth of 75K, slightly above July's 73K. Alongside payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings are projected at 0.3% MoM, matching the prior month, while annual wage growth is expected to slow to 3.7% YoY from 3.9%. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to edge up to 4.3% from 4.2%, its highest level since 2021.
  • On Friday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order lowering tariffs on Japanese auto imports to 15% from 27.5%, effective in seven days and retroactive to early August. The move is part of a broader US-Japan economic package that includes a $550 billion Japanese investment commitment in the US infrastructure, energy, and semiconductor projects, as well as an agreement for Tokyo to expand purchases of Alaskan LNG. While the tariff relief excludes aircraft and parts, the deal is seen as a significant boost for Japanese automakers.
  • On Thursday, Fed nominee Stephen Miran told a Senate panel he is "not at all" Trump's puppet, pushing back against concerns over political influence at the central bank. Miran plans to take unpaid leave from his White House advisory role if confirmed, a move critics say still blurs the Fed's independence. Beyond the independence debate, Miran pledged to act on macro-economic analysis and remain committed to the Fed's dual mandate.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that he is unsure if an interest-rate cut will be appropriate at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting because of continued uncertainty about how much tariffs may accelerate inflation and how much they may be weighing on the labor market.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidating below record highs ahead of NFP

XAU/USD printed a fresh all-time high at $3,578 on Wednesday before easing slightly, and it is now consolidating just below record highs around $3,550. The price action suggests healthy digestion of gains, with the yellow metal holding comfortably above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at $3,469, which acts as a strong support base.

Momentum indicators remain constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is cooling from overbought levels but is still firm at 64, showing bulls remain in control. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 46 reflects a strong uptrend, though its recent dip signals slowing momentum in the short term.

On the downside, immediate support is at $3,500, followed by the breakout zone near $3,450. On the upside, a decisive break above the $3,578 ATH would open the door to the $3,600 psychological level and potentially higher. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report will be Friday's key catalyst, with soft data likely to fuel another record-breaking rally, while a strong print could trigger a pullback toward the $3,500 area.

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

Next release: Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 75K

Previous: 73K

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

America's monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve's mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.


Date

Created

 : 2025.09.05

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.05

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles 250 points as NFP figures dip faster than expected

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sank on Friday, falling nearly 500 points at its lowest after United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed the US added far fewer jobs than expected, pinning expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut on September 17.
New
update2025.09.06 02:37

WTI hits three-month low as OPEC+ meeting looms

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is heading into the weekend under heavy pressure, extending its losing streak to a third straight day as traders brace for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting on Sunday, September 7.
New
update2025.09.06 02:26

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Fed must re-establish its credibility

United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the Federal Reserve (Fed) must re-establish its crediblity and trust with the American people during an interview with the Wall Street Journal, published on Friday.
New
update2025.09.06 02:06

US: We now expect a 50bps Fed cut in September - Standard Chartered

August non-farm payrolls rose just 22k, well below the 75k consensus; three-month average is now 29k.
New
update2025.09.06 01:41

AUD/USD jumps to six-week high as weak US NFP cement Fed cut

The AUD/USD rallies to six weeks high of 0.6588 after the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report in the United States (US), had cemented the case that the Federal Reserve would cut rates at the September meeting. The pair trades at 0.6565 up 0.40%
New
update2025.09.06 00:22

Silver consolidates near 14-year high as weak NFP data boosts Fed cut bets

Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm around $41.00 on Friday after retesting multi-year highs in the wake of soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The metal peaked at $41.47 on Wednesday, its strongest level since September 2011, before easing slightly on Thursday.
New
update2025.09.05 23:58

USD/CAD steadies near 1.3800 as Canada jobs slump offsets US Dollar weakness

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens on Friday after dismal labor market data, but broad US Dollar (USD) softness following a weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report kept USD/CAD's upside in check. The pair is holding near the 1.3800 handle, rebounding from a four-day low in the aftermath of the release.
New
update2025.09.05 22:54

ECB preview: The ECB's rate cut cycle is probably over - ABN AMRO

The Governing Council kept policy on hold in July, and is likely to remain on hold at the September meeting and for the foreseeable future, ABN AMRO's economists Nick Kounis and Bill Divney report.
New
update2025.09.05 22:54

US Dollar Index sinks below 98.00 as Fed rate cut bets pick up pace

The Greenback loses further momentum on Friday, en route to weekly losses.
New
update2025.09.05 22:35

USD/JPY drops toward 147.00 as USD weakens after NFP data

After spending the first half of the day comfortably above 148.00, USD/JPY reversed its direction in the American session and dropped toward 147.00. As of writing, the pair was down 0.75% on the day at 147.30.
New
update2025.09.05 22:29

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel