Select Language

GBP/JPY edges higher to near 199.30 as UK gilts rebound faster than Japan's bonds

Breaking news

GBP/JPY edges higher to near 199.30 as UK gilts rebound faster than Japan's bonds

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.09.04 20:59
GBP/JPY edges higher to near 199.30 as UK gilts rebound faster than Japan's bonds

update 2025.09.04 20:59

  • GBP/JPY gains slightly to near 199.30 as long-dated bond yields in the UK correct faster than in Japan.
  • BoE's Bailey acknowledged market expectations of uncertainty over further interest rate cuts in the remainder of the year.
  • Investors await key UK Retail Sales data for July.

The GBP/JPY pair ticks up to near 199.30 during the European trading session on Thursday. The cross edges higher as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gains, following a decent recovery in demand for United Kingdom (UK) long-dated gilts.

Lately, both the GBP and the Japanese Yen (JPY) were facing a sharp selling pressure as long-term government borrowing costs in both the UK and Japan soared due to mounting debt concerns.

30-year UK gilt yields have corrected 3.3% from its recent highs of 5.75% to near 5.50%. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year Japan Government Bonds (JGBs) have also declined but at a slower pace. 30-year JGB yields are down 1.8% to near 3.25% from its all-time high of 3.3%.

Another reason behind strength in the Pound Sterling is comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, in a hearing before the House of Commons' Treasury Committee on Wednesday, signaling uncertainty over the pace of interest rate cuts.

BoE Governor Bailey said, "There is considerably more doubt on how fast we can cut rates, and added market pricing suggests my message has been understood." Traders see an almost 33% chance that the BoE will cut interest rates one more time in the remainder of the year, Reuters reported.

Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Retail Sales data for July, which will be released on Friday.

UK gilt yields FAQs

UK Gilt Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding UK government bonds, or Gilts. Like other bonds, Gilts pay interest to holders at regular intervals, the 'coupon', followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. The coupon is fixed but the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price. For example, a Gilt worth 100 Pounds Sterling might have a coupon of 5.0%. If the Gilt's price were to fall to 98 Pounds, the coupon would still be 5.0%, but the Gilt Yield would rise to 5.102% to reflect the decline in price.

Many factors influence Gilt yields, but the main ones are interest rates, the strength of the British economy, the liquidity of the bond market and the value of the Pound Sterling. Rising inflation will generally weaken Gilt prices and lead to higher Gilt yields because Gilts are long-term investments susceptible to inflation, which erodes their value. Higher interest rates impact existing Gilt yields because newly-issued Gilts will carry a higher, more attractive coupon. Liquidity can be a risk when there is a lack of buyers or sellers due to panic or preference for riskier assets.

Probably the most important factor influencing the level of Gilt yields is interest rates. These are set by the Bank of England (BoE) to ensure price stability. Higher interest rates will raise yields and lower the price of Gilts because new Gilts issued will bear a higher, more attractive coupon, reducing demand for older Gilts, which will see a corresponding decline in price.

Inflation is a key factor affecting Gilt yields as it impacts the value of the principal received by the holder at the end of the term, as well as the relative value of the repayments. Higher inflation deteriorates the value of Gilts over time, reflected in a higher yield (lower price). The opposite is true of lower inflation. In rare cases of deflation, a Gilt may rise in price - represented by a negative yield.

Foreign holders of Gilts are exposed to exchange-rate risk since Gilts are denominated in Pound Sterling. If the currency strengthens investors will realize a higher return and vice versa if it weakens. In addition, Gilt yields are highly correlated to the Pound Sterling. This is because yields are a reflection of interest rates and interest rate expectations, a key driver of Pound Sterling. Higher interest rates, raise the coupon on newly-issued Gilts, attracting more global investors. Since they are priced in Pounds, this increases demand for Pound Sterling.


Date

Created

 : 2025.09.04

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.04

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stays close to fresh highs above $3,850

Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its winning streak for the fifth successive session, hovering, during the Asian hours on Wednesday, around its fresh all-time high of $3,871 per troy ounce, which was recorded on Tuesday.
New
update2025.10.01 10:14

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Holds 0.7939 support, eyes 0.8000 recovery

The USD/CHF consolidates at around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7955 down 0.05% as Wednesday's Asian Pacific session begins. The technical picture shows that the pair might bottom at around current levels, despite refreshing yearly lows in mid-September at 0.7829.
New
update2025.10.01 08:16

EUR/USD steadies as shutdown fears weigh on Dollar

EUR/USD holds firm on Tuesday during the North American session, although the Dollar weakens due to fears of a possible government shutdown that could disrupt the release of crucial jobs data for Fed officials. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1735 up a modest 0.05%.
New
update2025.10.01 07:56

GBP/USD finds uneasy gains ahead of US government shutdown

GBP/USD caught a slight lift on Tuesday, creeping into the 1.3450 region and tilting into a third straight bullish session.
New
update2025.10.01 07:30

Gold advances as shutdown looms, weak US data fuels rate cut bets

Gold climbs during the North American session on Tuesday yet remains below the record high hit in the Asian session of $3,871. Amid fears of a US government shutdown, jobs data reaffirmed expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). XAU/USD trades at $3,846, up 0.35%.
New
update2025.10.01 04:29

Canadian Dollar middles as investor sentiment slows to a crawl

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) held mostly in place on Tuesday, with market flows broadly drawing down as the US government careens into a funding shutdown.
New
update2025.10.01 04:09

Fed's Collins warns that rate cuts will follow, but only if the economy meets expectations

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Boston President Susan Collins warned that the Fed could have room to continue interest rate cuts, but only if economic conditions remain on-balance.
New
update2025.10.01 03:59

Fed's Goolsbee says short government shutdowns are okay

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Tuesday that "short" government shutdowns tend to have a limited impact on the broader economy. The statements come at a time when the US government is barreling into a funding gap and subsequent shutdown.
New
update2025.10.01 03:48

USD/JPY slides as US shutdown fears boost Yen's safe-haven appeal

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/JPY extending losses for a third straight day as the looming United States (US) government shutdown weighs on the Greenback and bolsters safe-haven demand for the Yen.
New
update2025.10.01 03:36

Dow Jones Industrial Average slow bleeds as government shutdown looms

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) saw a slow bleed on Tuesday, shedding around 150 points as investors braced ahead of what is likely to be a federal government shutdown.
New
update2025.10.01 02:46

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel