Select Language

USD/CAD hesitates below 1.3800 ahead of US employment, industrial data

Breaking news

USD/CAD hesitates below 1.3800 ahead of US employment, industrial data

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.09.03 19:57
USD/CAD hesitates below 1.3800 ahead of US employment, industrial data

update 2025.09.03 19:57

  • The US Dollar loses momentum, but maintains its positive trend against a softer Loonie.
  • A nearly $2 decline in Crude prices is adding negative pressure on the CAD.
  • Investors are wary of placing large US Dollar bets ahead of the US JOLTS and Factory Orders releases.


The US Dollar appreciates for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, buoyed by higher US yields, while the decline in Oil prices keeps weighing on the commodity-sensitive Loonie. The pair, however, is struggling to breach the 1.3800 level, ahead of the US JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders data.

A somewhat brighter market mood is weighing on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, has turned lower on the day, although it keeps most of the gains taken on Tuesday.


Lower Oil prices are supporting the pair, as the US benchmark WTI reversed from Monday's highs at $65.77 to levels right above  $64.00 at the time of writing, on news reporting that OPEC+ countries might be considering another output hike in October. Oil is Canada's main export, and a significant decline in prices tends to have a negative pressure on the CAD.

In the US, later today, the focus will be on the US JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders data, which are expected to show further signs of economic slowdown and endorse the view of a Fed rate cut in September. If these expectations are confirmed, the US Dollar might extend its reversal.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.




Date

Created

 : 2025.09.03

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.03

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

EUR/GBP rises to late-July highs amid UK fiscal strains and political uncertainty

The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, with EUR/GBP trading around 0.8740 after briefly touching its highest level since July 28 earlier in the day.
New
update2025.09.25 23:53

Canada FX Today: The Canadian Dollar awaits a GDP lifeline as economic headwinds mount

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains under slight pressure on Thursday against the US Dollar (USD) as markets anticipate the release of July's monthly Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
New
update2025.09.25 23:35

GBP/USD falls to three-week low as strong US data boosts Dollar

The British Pound (GBP) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with GBP/USD slipping below the 1.3400 psychological mark as a wave of stronger-than-expected US economic data revives demand for the Greenback.
New
update2025.09.25 22:55

US real GDP expands 3.8% in Q2 vs. 3.3% expected

The United States' (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) final estimate showed on Thursday. This reading came in above the previous estimate and the market expectation of 3.3%.
New
update2025.09.25 22:25

EUR/USD slumps as US Dollar surges on strong US data, tests 1.1700

The Euro (EUR) extends its decline for the second day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, weighed down by a string of upbeat US economic data that boosted the Greenback across the board.
New
update2025.09.25 22:07

Fed's Schmid: Recent data points to rising risks to job market

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said on Thursday that the Fed is currently close to meeting its mandates but added that policy must be forward-looking, per Reuters.
New
update2025.09.25 22:05

Fed's Goolsbee: Job market seems to be cooling, inflation is going up

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee repeated on Thursday that he fells "somewhat uneasy" with frontloading too many rate cuts based on jobs numbers slowing, per Reuters.
New
update2025.09.25 21:48

US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 218K last week

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance went down to 218K for the week ending September 20.
New
update2025.09.25 21:34

Fed's Miran: No material evidence of tariff-driven inflation

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran told Fox Business on Thursday that other policymakers are more concerned about tariffs driving inflation than he is, per Reuters.
New
update2025.09.25 21:27

Gold steadies near $3,750 as markets eye US data and Fed commentary

Gold (XAU/USD) steadies on Thursday, recovering from the previous day's corrective pullback as markets gear up for a busy US economic calendar.
New
update2025.09.25 21:17

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel