Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates above $40.50 after breakout to 14-year highs

• Silver extends rally to fresh 14-year highs, breaking above the key $40.00 level last seen in September 2011.
• Fed rate cut bets, weak US Dollar, and safe-haven demand continue to fuel bullish momentum
• Technical breakout confirmed above the July peak of $39.53, with XAG/USD holding firmly above short-term moving averages.

Silver (XAG/USD) kicks off the week on a strong footing, with spot prices extending their rally for a fifth consecutive session, breaking above the $40.00 mark to hit fresh 14-year highs -- levels last seen in September 2011. At the time of writing, the metal is consolidating around $40.70, as thin trading conditions prevail due to the US Labor Day holiday.

The sustained rally in Silver comes on the back of broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and firm expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, which continues to support demand for non-yielding assets. Market sentiment remains firmly bullish despite overbought technical signals, as traders weigh safe-haven demand amid mounting global uncertainty. A federal appeals court ruling on Friday declared most of US President Donald Trump's global tariffs unlawful, casting fresh doubt over the future of US trade policy. Concerns over the Fed's independence are also adding to market anxiety, further supporting the case for precious metals.

XAG/USD maintains a strong upward trajectory on the 4-hour chart, building on the bullish momentum that began in late July. After finding support near $36.00, the metal has been making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a clear uptrend with buyers consistently stepping in to defend dips and keep the bullish momentum intact.

The August close above the July 23 peak of $39.53 - a multi-year high - confirmed a significant breakout, supported by an 8.29% monthly gain. Price action has now decisively cleared the psychological $40.00 barrier, turning prior resistance at $39.50 into immediate support.

Silver is holding well above key short-term moving averages that continue to slope upward. Momentum indicators are elevated, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near overbought territory, suggesting the potential for a brief consolidation or shallow pullback, though no clear signs of trend exhaustion are evident. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also signals strength, with expanding bullish histogram bars and the MACD line comfortably above the signal line.

Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen at $41.00 and $42.00, with the next upside target at $43.40 -- the high from September 5, 2011. On the downside, the $39.50-$39.00 zone remains a key support area, with any pullback toward this region likely to attract fresh buying interest. As long as broader macro and policy drivers remain aligned, XAG/USD appears poised to extend its rally toward new cycle highs.