Australian Dollar holds steady heading into Tuesday

• The Australian Dollar caught a late boost last week after the Greenback got shredded by bad NFP numbers.
• A mid-tier data schedule awaits Aussie traders this week.
• The RBA's latest rate call is due next week, and a cut looks likely after CPI inflation eased further.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) held steady on Monday, holding onto last week's late gains against the US Dollar (USD). AUD/USD kept a tight grip on the 0.6470 region, keeping the pair locked in against the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A much-needed moment of Greenback selling helped to snap the Aussie's six-day losing streak, and traders are now pivoting to watching for trade headlines.

Australia's Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation gauge hit a 20-month high in July, rising 0.9% MoM, its highest single-month increase since December 2023. Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 1.9% last week, dragging Q1 inflation metrics below the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2-3% target band and locking in an interest rate cut at the upcoming interest rate decision on August 12.

Australian markets remain exposed to fallout from the Trump administration's whiplash tariff policies, keeping general risk appetite underbid in the Australian quarters. Australia is opening up its consumer market to beef imports from Canada for the first time since 2003, dealing a potential blow to US President Donald Trump's claims that the US will be exporting huge amounts of American beef to the Australian markets as a result of his strong-arm tariff policies targeting Australia.

Data-light week puts trade headlines in the front seat

The Australian data docket is a mid-tier affair this week. Australian Trade Balance figures for June are due on Thursday and are expected to show a jump from $ 2.238B to $ 3.25B MoM; however, the figure is too backdated for investors to do anything about.

Before that, the latest Chinese Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July will print early Tuesday. Knock-on effects for the Australian Dollar could surface as data watchers wait for signs that the Trump administration's tariff plans for China could have knock-on effects on the Australian economy. July's Caixin Chinese Services PMI is expected to tick down to 50.2 from 50.6.

Australia abandons Musk's Tesla as home battery system rebates kick in

EV superstar Tesla (TSLA) has been backsliding in global sales consistently in 2025, and the Tesla fall-off has now spread to the home battery market. Tesla's global share in the sales of home batteries for power storage has shrunken from 20% to just 5% in seven months. The "brand destruction" by Elon Musk is incredibly poorly timed: Australian government rebates for home battery systems are kicking in this year, and Australia is on pace to sell as many batteries in the first ten weeks of the rebate program as were sold in the entirety of 2024.

According to a report by Australian market research firm Roy Morgan, Tesla and Elon Musk's adjacent companies have slipped into the top 10 least-trusted companies in Australia, joining Chinese discount goods supergiant Temu, Musk's X/Twitter, and Meta/Facebook as some of the least trustworthy companies in the Australian market.

AUD/USD daily chart