AUD/USD holds steady near key technical levels

• AUD/USD found slim gains on Tuesday, keeping the pair bolstered near key levels.
• The Aussie-Dollar pair remains trapped just above the 200-day EMA, but below 0.6500.
• The latest Australian monthly CPI inflation print is due early Wednesday.

AUD/USD is holding steady between familiar technical levels after catching a thin bid on Tuesday. US economic releases will take a breather on Wednesday, giving Aussie traders a chance to catch their breath, at least after the next round of Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.

The latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation figures loom large later this week, pushing investor sentiment into the middle ahead of the key data print. Before then, US data remains fairly limited, and data reactions will likely stay constrained.

Coming up: Australian CPI inflation

Australia's monthly CPI inflation print for July will land early on Wednesday. Australian inflation is expected to rise, forecast to climb to 2.3% compared to the previous 1.9%. After the RBA's latest Meeting Minutes released early Tuesday, Wednesday's CPI print will wrap up the Aussie's significant representation on this week's data docket.

AUD/USD price forecast

In the hourly window, AUD/USD found a solid base near 0.6415, forming a footing from which it staged a bounce. It cracked through a descending trendline and pushed past 0.6440, even settling beyond the 50-hour simple moving average. That rally brought the pair up toward the 0.6490 zone, where 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance now looms, as traders assess whether bulls can drive it to the next stops at 0.6520 and higher toward 0.6540. But the downside risk remains in play: a failure above 0.6490 could reassert pressure, with support curling around 0.6470 and 0.6440, and deeper vulnerability targeting the low-0.6400s.

On the daily chart, the outlook is more zoned in. AUD/USD continues to oscillate within a 0.6400-0.6600 range, with neither fresh bulls nor bears grabbing the wheel. The pair is hovering near the lower-to-mid-range, buoyed partly by a softer U.S. dollar and improving risk appetite. Yet it still needs a strong catalyst to break free, whether through a big swing in Chinese data, a dovish U.S. Fed signal, or a surprise move from the RBA.

AUD/USD daily chart