Canadian Dollar treads water as bullish Greenback pressure eases

• The Canadian Dollar saw tepid Monday action following last week's market-busting NFP.
• Canadian markets are largely closed for a civic holiday to start the week, leaving US flows in the driver's seat.
• Key Canadian labor data is due later this week, and could be a reckoning for BoC rate cut expectations.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found some much-needed footing on Monday, trading in a steady range near 1.3775 against the US Dollar (USD). Global Greenback flows were knocked sharply back last week after US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data saw sharp downside revisions, prompting US President Donald Trump to immediately fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

It's going to be a quiet week on the Canadian Dollar side of the economic data docket. Ivey Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) survey results are due on Thursday, but are unlikely to move CAD markets much. Key Canadian employment figures are due this Friday, and will serve as a bellwether for Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut expectations heading around the corner into the last quarter. The pace of Canadian hiring is expected to slow, and the unemployment rate is expected to tick higher as the Canadian economy grapples with tariff impacts.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar catches a breather on Monday

• The Canadian Dollar ground to a halt on Monday, pushing USD/CAD into a middling pattern just below 1.3800.
• Last Friday's wide miss in US employment data sparked a sharp turnaround in US Dollar flows, snapping the Greenback's six-day winning streak against the Loonie.
• Markets will be shuffling their feet and watching trade headlines amid a general lack of high-impact data on the US and Canadian sides of the data docket throughout the week.
• Donald Trump's "firm" August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs has turned into an equally firm August 8 deadline.
• President Trump's ire at reality continues unabated, and has vowed to install a new head of statistics at the BLS after Donald Trump became irate at the government data reporting agency for reporting dissatisfactory employment data that wiped out most of the job gains that were reported in recent months.

Canadian Dollar price forecast

The Canadian Dollar caught a headline-fueled break from one-sided US Dollar flows late last week, capping off a sharp turnaround in USD/CAD momentum. The Loonie has pared away some of the Greenback's recent gains, pushing the pair back below the 1.3800 handle, but USD/CAD remains caught in a technical trap between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) near 1.3740 and 1.3860, respectively.

USD/CAD daily chart