Select Language

AUD/USD rises to near 0.6480 as accelerating Fed dovish bets weigh on US Dollar

Breaking news

AUD/USD rises to near 0.6480 as accelerating Fed dovish bets weigh on US Dollar

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.08.04 19:17
AUD/USD rises to near 0.6480 as accelerating Fed dovish bets weigh on US Dollar

update 2025.08.04 19:17

  • AUD/USD gains to near 0.6480 as rising Fed dovish bets have pushed the US Dollar on the back foot.
  • The US NFP report for July has shown signs of weak labor demand.
  • Investors await the US Services PMI data for July.

The AUD/USD pair moves higher to near 0.6480 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair gains as demand for risk-perceived assets has increased, following an increase in market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume its monetary expansion cycle in the September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the September meeting has increased to 80.8% from 41.2% seen on Thursday, a day before the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.

Traders raised Fed dovish bets significantly as the US NFP report signaled a slowdown in the labor demand. The report showed an addition of 73K fresh workers, sharply lower than estimates of 110K. Also, employment figures for June were revised significantly lower to 14K from 147K. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2%, as expected, from the prior release of 4.1%.

Accelerating Fed dovish bets have weighed heavily on the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, ticks up to near 98.90. However, the Index fell over 1.4% in a single trading day on Friday from its here-month high of 100.25.

Meanwhile, investors await the US revised S&P Global and ISM Services PMI data for July, which is scheduled to be released on Tuesday.

In Australia, markets are closed on account of a Bank Holiday.

 

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

Last release: Fri Aug 01, 2025 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: 73K

Consensus: 110K

Previous: 147K

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

America's monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve's mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.


 


Date

Created

 : 2025.08.04

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.08.04

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

USD/JPY trades above 147.50, upside capped by Fed concerns

USD/JPY recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 147.60 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, the upside of the pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) may struggle amid rising concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence.
New
update2025.08.27 10:36

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1108 vs. 7.1161 previous

On Wednesday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1108 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1188 and 7.1559 Reuters estimate.
New
update2025.08.27 10:32

US President Donald Trump says he's prepared for fight as Cook vows to sue -- Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump said he was ready for a legal fight with Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook after he moved to oust her from her post following allegations that she falsified mortgage documents, Bloomberg reported late Tuesday. 
New
update2025.08.27 09:47

NZD/USD flat lines near 0.5850 on worries over Fed's independence

The NZD/USD pair holds steady near 0.5860 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Rising concerns over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
New
update2025.08.27 09:26

GBP/USD churns chart paper near key figures ahead of quiet session

GBP/USD rebounded from early-week losses on Tuesday, bouncing back up from a fresh technical floor near the 1.3450 level. Cable has been drifting within familiar technical levels as broad-market investor sentiment grinds to a halt ahead of key US economic figures.
New
update2025.08.27 08:37

When is the Australian CPI inflation and how could it affect AUD/USD?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July on Wednesday at 01.30 GMT. The monthly CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in July, compared to a 1.9% figure reported in June. 
New
update2025.08.27 08:34

USD/CAD weakens below 1.3850 amid renewed concerns over Fed's independence

The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3835 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian dollar (CAD) amid fears over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence after US President Donald Trump announced he was firing a Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
New
update2025.08.27 08:03

USD/JPY continues sideways grind ahead of key data

USD/JPY eased slightly on Tuesday, backsliding around one-quarter of one percent and keeping the pair hobbled just below the 148.00 handle.
New
update2025.08.27 07:23

AUD/USD holds steady near key technical levels

AUD/USD is holding steady between familiar technical levels after catching a thin bid on Tuesday. US economic releases will take a breather on Wednesday, giving Aussie traders a chance to catch their breath, at least after the next round of Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.
New
update2025.08.27 07:03

Donald Trump announces he will have a "majority" on the Fed

United States (US) President Donald Trump stepped in it on Tuesday, declaring that there would soon be a majority of rate-cut voters on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate setting voting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
New
update2025.08.27 05:46

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel