Euro rebounds sharply as US Nonfarm payrolls disappoint, rate cut bets surge

• EUR/USD jumps over 150 pips, rising from 1.1391 to 1.1556 post-NFP release.
• The US economy added just 73K jobs in July, well below the 110K forecast.
• Unemployment Rate ticks up to 4.2%, in line with expectations.

The Euro (EUR) reverses sharply against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised to the downside, catching markets off guard. The pair had been under pressure throughout the week, trading on the back foot as the US Dollar held firm on robust economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook.

EUR/USD surges nearly 150 pips from a multi-week low following the release of the NFP report. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1556 during the American trading hours, up roughly 1.20% on the day, after dipping to an intraday low of 1.1391. The sharp rebound comes as the disappointing jobs data sparks broad Dollar selling, lifting the Euro from its lowest levels since mid-June.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell to 99.3 from the two-month high of 100.26 reached earlier in the day.

July's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, sharply missing expectations of 110,000. Moreover, the previous month's figure was revised significantly lower to just 14,000 from the initially reported 147,000, pointing to a deeper labor market slowdown than previously thought. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, aligning with market expectations. The modest rise reflects easing labor market conditions and reinforces the overall dovish tone of the jobs report.

Wage growth held steady in July, offering a mixed signal on underlying inflation pressures. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations and up from the 0.2% gain in June. On a yearly basis, wages increased 3.9% YoY, slightly above forecasts of 3.8% and unchanged from the prior reading.

Following the weaker-than-expected jobs data, market expectations for a September rate cut surged to 67.1%, sharply up from just 37% earlier in the day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, recent hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell may temper expectations of imminent easing.

Looking ahead, focus shifts to the July ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) due later in the day, which is forecast to ease slightly to 49.5 from 49.0 in June.