USD/CHF tumbles as Powell's Jackson Hole remarks trigger US Dollar selloff

• USD/CHF drops nearly 1% to 0.8000 after briefly hitting a two-week high earlier in the day.
• Fed Chair Powell struck a cautious balance at Jackson Hole, reinforcing expectations for a September cut.
• CME FedWatch pricing shows a 90% probability of a 25 bps September cut, up from around 70% earlier in the day.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) surges against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium triggered a broad-based Greenback selloff. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading near 0.8003, down almost 1% on the day after briefly touching 0.8104, its highest level in nearly two weeks, before reversing to its lowest in around three and a half weeks.

In his keynote, Powell delivered a cautious message that reinforced expectations of a September rate cut while avoiding a firm commitment. On tariffs, he acknowledged that "the effects on consumer prices are now clearly visible" and warned that they could accumulate in the coming months with "high uncertainty about timing and amounts." He stressed that the critical question for monetary policy is whether these price increases risk entrenching inflation, but judged the base case to be "relatively short-lived -- a one-time shift in the price level."

More broadly, Powell described the near-term outlook as a "challenging situation," with inflation risks tilted to the upside and employment risks leaning lower. He stressed that the Fed's policy is now closer to neutral compared to a year ago, allowing officials to "proceed carefully" as they weigh future moves. Importantly, Powell reiterated that monetary policy is not on a preset course, and decisions will remain data-dependent in line with the Fed's dual mandate. The August employment and inflation reports, scheduled before the September FOMC meeting, will be important inputs into that assessment.

In the aftermath, Treasury yields slipped, and the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major peers, fell sharply from a two-week high as traders increased bets on a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market pricing now reflects a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, up from around 70% earlier in the day.