Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below ascending channel support, NFP in focus

• Silver is trading around $36.50, down over 4.5% this week after hitting a 14-year high of $39.53 on July 23.
• Price has broken below ascending channel support, marking a potential trend reversal and signaling fading bullish momentum and is poised for its biggest weekly decline since March.
• Market awaits Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT for fresh direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) continues to struggle under the weight of a stronger US Dollar, extending its decline from the 14-year high of $39.53 reached on July 23. At the time of writing, the white metal is trading near $36.50 during the American trading session, down nearly 4.5% so far this week, with traders turning cautious ahead of Friday's key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT.

Technically, on the daily chart, Silver has broken below the ascending channel that had supported its uptrend since early April, marking a clear shift in market structure. This breakdown suggests bullish momentum has faded and a deeper correction may be unfolding. The metal is now hovering just above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $36.54, which acts as immediate support. A daily close below this zone could expose the next key downside target at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $34.65.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish case. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 40, signaling weakening momentum and a slide toward oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has turned negative, with a bearish crossover in place, signaling further downside risks.

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, Silver has broken below both the 50-EMA and 100-SMA, underscoring persistent short-term selling pressure. Price is now approaching a key demand zone in the $35.30-$35.70 range, which could offer some near-term support. However, with the 4-hour RSI plunging to oversold levels near 21, a short-term bounce is possible. Still, the MACD remains deep in negative territory, suggesting the broader bias remains tilted to the downside -- unless a softer-than-expected NFP print sparks a reversal.