Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades in tight range around $3,300 ahead of US NFP data

• Gold price wobbles around $3,300 as investors await the US NFP data for July.
• Traders trimmed bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Fed in the September meeting.
• The 50-day EMA has capped the Gold price's upside.

Gold price consolidates in a limited range around $3,300 during the late European trading session on Friday. The precious metal wobbles as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Investors will closely monitor the US NFP data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

Economists expect the US economy to have added 110K fresh workers, lower than 147K jobs created in June. The Unemployment Rate is seen higher at 4.2%, against 4.1% in June. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have grown at a faster pace on monthly as well as on annual basis.

Lately, traders have pared bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Fed in the September policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to cut interest rates in the September meeting has diminished to 39.2% from 58.4% seen a week ago.

Traders trimmed Fed dovish bets as Chairman Jerome Powell, in its press conference on Wednesday, signaled no rush for interest rate cuts, citing that the economy is in a "solid position" and inflation is "somewhat above target". Powell also warned that the impact of tariffs has started showing up into prices.

Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price bounces back to retest the breakdown region of the Symmetrical Triangle formation around$3.320. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as key barrier for the gold price around $3,320.

The14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near $40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks below that level.

Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245

Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.

Gold daily chart