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Australian Dollar loses ground following China's dismal PMI

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Australian Dollar loses ground following China's dismal PMI

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update 2025.08.01 11:18
Australian Dollar loses ground following China's dismal PMI

update 2025.08.01 11:18

  • The Australian Dollar struggles as Q2 Producer Price Index rose 0.7% QoQ, falling short of expectations.
  • China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 in July, down from 50.4 in June, and below the 50.3 expected.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to hold in positive territory.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower on Friday, continuing its seven-day losing streak. The AUD/USD pair remains steady following the release of economic figures from Australia and its close trading partner, China. Traders shift their focus toward the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), due later in the day, which is expected to hold in positive territory.

Australia's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, against the expected and previous increase of 0.9%. The annual PPI climbed 3.4% in Q2 versus 3.7% prior. Meanwhile, China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 49.5 in July from 50.4 in June. This figure came in below the market forecast of 50.3.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that Australia's Retail Sales rose 1.2% month-over-month in June, compared to 0.5% in May (revised from 0.2%). The reading came in above the market expectations of 0.4%. Retail Sales climbed 0.3% QoQ in the second quarter, compared to 0.1% in Q1 (revised from 0%).

Australian Dollar continues to lose ground as US Dollar strengthens ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, remains stronger and is trading around 100.00 at the time of writing.
  • Core US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation ticked higher in June, rising 0.3% MoM as many market participants had expected. On an annualized basis, PCE inflation accelerated to 2.6% YoY, outrunning the expected hold at 2.5%.
  • The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5% at its July meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a post-policy conference that the US central bank has "made no decisions" about a potential policy change in September, and it may take a bit to assess the effect of tariffs on consumer prices.
  • US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 3.0% for the April through June period. This figure followed the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter and came in stronger than the expectation of 2.4%.
  • US President Donald Trump announced a new trade deal with South Korea, imposing a 15% US tariff on imports from South Korea. The agreement also includes a $350 billion commitment from South Korea toward US-owned and controlled investments, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
  • The United States and European Union reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday that sets 15% tariffs on most European goods, taking effect on August 1. This deal has ended a months-long stand-off, per Bloomberg.
  • China's Finance Minister Lan Fo'an said on Tuesday that the country will ramp up fiscal support to bolster domestic consumption and mitigate mounting economic headwinds. He emphasized that uncertainty around China's development environment is growing and Beijing will adopt more proactive fiscal policies to help stabilise growth.
  • China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3 in July, as against 49.7 reported in June. The market forecast was 49.7. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.1 in July, versus June's 50.5 and below the estimated 50.3 figure.
  • Australia's Building Permits, showing the number of total dwellings approved in Australia, climbed by 11.9% month-over-month in June, surpassing the market expectations of a 2% rise and the downwardly revised 2.2% increase in May. This marked the second consecutive month of growth in dwelling approvals and the strongest since May 2023.
  • Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, against the 0.9% increase in Q1 and the expected growth of 0.8%. Annually, CPI inflation eased to 2.1% in Q2, compared to 2.4% prior and below the market consensus of 2.2%.
  • The monthly Consumer Price Index rose by 1.9% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of a 2.1% increase. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for Q2 rose 0.6% and 2.7% on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. Markets estimated an increase of 0.7% QoQ and 2.7% YoY in the quarter to June.

Australian Dollar remains below 0.6450 amid bearish bias

AUD/USD is trading around 0.6430 on Friday. The daily chart's technical analysis indicates a bearish bias as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark. Additionally, the pair is positioned below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is weaker.

On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could find the primary support at the two-month low of 0.6421, which was recorded on August 1. A break below this level could put downward pressure on the pair to test a three-month low at 0.6372, recorded on June 23.

The AUD/USD pair may target the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6487, followed by the 50-day EMA of 0.6495. A break above these levels could strengthen the short- and medium-term price momentum and support the pair to explore the region around the eight-month high at 0.6625.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.08% 0.07% 0.06% 0.04% 0.03% 0.39% 0.17%
EUR -0.08% 0.07% 0.00% 0.02% 0.07% 0.14% 0.15%
GBP -0.07% -0.07% -0.06% -0.05% -0.00% 0.28% 0.09%
JPY -0.06% 0.00% 0.06% -0.01% -0.01% 0.22% 0.13%
CAD -0.04% -0.02% 0.05% 0.01% -0.04% 0.34% 0.15%
AUD -0.03% -0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.29% 0.21%
NZD -0.39% -0.14% -0.28% -0.22% -0.34% -0.29% -0.09%
CHF -0.17% -0.15% -0.09% -0.13% -0.15% -0.21% 0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.


Date

Created

 : 2025.08.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.08.01

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