WTI Crude slips as traders await US inventory data and digest OPEC+ supply increase

• WTI Crude trades near $65.50 as traders await key US Oil inventory data at 20:30 GMT.
• OPEC+ report signals rising supply through Q3, reinforcing pressure on WTI.
• Technical pressure builds as WTI slips below key moving average support at $64.81.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil remains under pressure on Tuesday as a growing global supply outlook weighs on sentiment. 

At the time of writing, WTI is trading above $65.00 with daily losses of 0.55%. Traders are digesting the latest supply guidance from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and awaiting key US inventory data later in the day. 

The ongoing production expansion by OPEC+ and sluggish US refinery demand are reinforcing downside pressure.

OPEC+ report signals rising supply through Q3, reinforcing pressure on WTI

OPEC's July Monthly Oil Market Report reaffirmed expectations for increased oil supply through the third quarter. The report highlighted firm demand in Asia and improving macroeconomic conditions in the United States and the Eurozone.

The Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) group, also known as OPEC+, comprises OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the UAE, as well as non-OPEC allies such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mexico.

The report stated that "The DoC group has agreed to gradually increase production levels starting [in] July, with a phased approach continuing into August," OPEC stated.
"This is based on continued robust demand in Asia and a rebound in major Western economies."

In June, OPEC+ Crude Oil production rose by 349,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing the total group production to 41.56 million bpd. 

OPEC also projected that non-OPEC liquids production will rise by 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil and Canada.

US API inventory in focus as WTI falls

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release its Weekly Crude Oil Stock report at 20:30 GMT. The release is closely watched for near-term price implications.

Following last week's surprise 7.1 million barrel build, market expectations are for a 2 million barrel draw. 

A larger-than-expected draw could offer temporary support for WTI, while another build may intensify bearish momentum.

Oil technical analysis: WTI Crude heads toward moving average support at $64.81

On the daily chart, WTI is trading above $65.00 as the price approaches a critical support level at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $64.81. The 50-day SMA is currently positioned just below $64.71, forming a key confluence zone.

A sustained break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April decline at $64.18 would expose the June 24 low at $63.73, potentially opening the door to further downside toward $60.58.

WTI Crude Oil daily chart

Momentum indicators also show deterioration, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifting lower to 47, reflecting fading bullish momentum while remaining above oversold conditions.

On the upside, resistance remains firm at $66.75, a level that aligns closely with the recent highs from July 10-12, where WTI peaked and reversed. 

This area also sits just below the 50% retracement, reinforcing its importance as a psychological resistance zone near $67.08. Further resistance lies at the 200-day SMA at $68.00, capping any near-term recovery attempts.