Select Language

AUD/USD bounces up but remains below 0.6500 on risk-off markets

Breaking news

AUD/USD bounces up but remains below 0.6500 on risk-off markets

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.06.13 17:40
AUD/USD bounces up but remains below 0.6500 on risk-off markets

update 2025.06.13 17:40

  • The Aussie Dollar is trimming losses after a sharp decline on risk-aversion.
  • Israel's attack on Iran has boosted the US Dollar and other safe assets.
  • The pair is struggling to return above a previous support zone at 0.6500.


The Australian Dollar is trimming some losses following a sharp decline earlier today as news that Israel bombed Iranian nuclear and military sites triggered a rush for safety, sending risk-sensitive assets, like the AUD, tumbling.

The AUD/USD depreciated nearly 1% during Friday's early trading to hit one-week lows right above 0.6450. The pair is attempting to regain lost ground during the European trading session, yet upside attempts are being capped below a previous support level at the 0.6500 area.

Tensions in the Middle East have crushed risk appetite

Israel attacked Iran with unprecedented strength earlier on Friday, hitting nuclear sites in Tehran and killing Revolutionary Guard officials. Iran reacted by launching a drone attack on Israel and walking out of the nuclear talks with the US scheduled for the next Sunday.

The risk of a regional conflict in the Area adds a new layer of uncertainty to an already troubled global economic outlook. The US-China trade deal failed to convince investors earlier this week, and Trump has threatened to impose higher tariffs on all partners if a deal is not reached before July 9--a highly adverse scenario for the risk-sensitive AUD.

In the macroeconomic front, Australian Consumer Inflation expectations jumped to 5% in June, from 4.1% in May, pushing back hopes of a July rate cut. In the US, on the other hand, soft PPI figures confirmed that the impact of tariffs on prices is yet to come, and kept hopes of a Fed cut in September alive.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.



Date

Created

 : 2025.06.13

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.13

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Canadian Dollar backslides further as risk aversion bolsters the Greenback further

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shed further weight on Wednesday, falling to its lowest bids against the US Dollar (USD) in around two weeks, pushing the USD/CAD pair back up into the 1.3700 region.
New
update2025.07.10 05:17

Breaking: Bitcoin hits record highs near $112,000

BTCUSD reached a record high in levels just shy of the $112,000 mark following the closing bell on Wall Street on Wednesday.
New
update2025.07.10 05:00

Dow Jones Industrial Average tests higher amid choppy markets as tariff threats continue

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained some ground on Wednesday, paring away some of the week's early losses, although equities remain down overall from Monday's opening bids.
New
update2025.07.10 04:46

AUD/USD firms as traders digest latest tariff headlines and Fed Minutes

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading in a well-defined range against its US Dollar (USD) counterpart on Wednesday, as markets digest the latest Fed Minutes and fresh tariff-related headlines.
New
update2025.07.10 04:19

NZD/USD steady as RBNZ holds rates, Trump expands tariff campaign

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) flattens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the Greenback paring its daily gains after the release of the Federal Reserve's (Fed)June Meeting Minutes.
New
update2025.07.10 04:05

Forex Today: And... back to the US labour market

The Greenback managed to print marginal gains on Wednesday, enough to extend its ongoing recovery from last week's multi-year lows on the back of persistent unease surrounding the White House's trade policies and Trump's threats of extra tariffs.
New
update2025.07.10 03:36

GBP/JPY retreats from near one-year highs as Yen regains ground

The British Pound (GBP) eases slightly against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, retreating after rising to 199.83 -- its highest level since late July 2024.
New
update2025.07.10 03:17

WTI Crude Oil rises as Red Sea attacks overshadow EIA inventory build

WTI Crude Oil is trading higher on Wednesday as attacks in the Red Sea overshadow reports of rising supply.
New
update2025.07.10 01:45

Trump announces another batch of sweeping tariffs

US President Donald Trump hit the ground running on Wednesday, unveiling his next list of countries that will be facing double-digit tariffs on August 1 if satisfactory trade deals are not delivered. Trump also reiterated his warnings of an additional 10% tariff on any BRICS-aligned country.
New
update2025.07.10 01:41

EUR/CHF weakens near multi-week range low as ECB flags broader global risks

The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Wednesday, with EUR/CHF trading near the lower boundary of its multi-week range around 0.9318. The cross remains under pressure following fresh comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials that added to the cautious mood around the Euro.
New
update2025.07.10 00:35

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel