CAD reaches fresh recovery high - Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is extending its recent gains and trading at fresh marginal highs, reaching levels last seen in early October, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

CAD movements are supported by narrower spreads and higher oil prices

"The CAD's strength is fundamentally driven, reflecting an important shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy, initially on the back of last week's BoC and policymakers' reluctant shift toward neutral and subsequently followed by the latest softness in US CPI that has delivered a more dovish repricing of Fed expectations."

"The latest gains in oil are providing the CAD with an added boost. Our FV estimate for USD/CAD has fallen to a fresh low, and is currently at 1.3681. We would also like to highlight Scotiabank's latest forecast update, in which we see USD/CAD ending 2025 at 1.34 and 2026 at 1.28. USD/CAD's technicals are bearish as it reaches fresh multi-month lows and pushes toward 1.36."

"The momentum indicators are bearish and the RSI is nearing the oversold threshold at 30, warranting some degree of caution. We continue to highlight the absence of any major support levels ahead of the September low at 1.3420. Short-term support is expected between 1.3600 and 1.3580. Short-term resistance is now expected above 1.3700."