GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish momentum builds after rising above 195.00

• GBP/JPY rises above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at 194.21.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 60, suggesting that momentum remains in favour of the bulls.
• A decisive break above 195.00 could push prices back to 196.00

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, with the GBP/JPY pair edging up to near 195.20 at the time of writing. 

This move marks a continuation of bullish momentum that began earlier in the week, as the pair broke above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling a shift in near-term sentiment. Despite this strength, GBP/JPY is now testing a significant resistance level that may determine the next directional bias.

The pair has encountered firm resistance at 195.29, which corresponds with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline observed between January and April. This level has consistently limited bullish advances since early May, making it a critical technical barrier. Momentum indicators, however, suggest that bulls still have control. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 60, showing that while the pair isn't overbought, there is still upward momentum supporting further gains, provided the resistance can be decisively broken.

GBP/JPY daily chart

Can GBP/JPY reclaim 196.00?

Should GBP/JPY manage a daily close above 195.29, the path could open toward the psychological 196.00 mark, with the next potential resistance levels near 197.30, which aligns with previous swing highs. However, failure to breach the current resistance could trigger a short-term pullback.

On the downside, the 194.00 psychological level offers initial support. This level is reinforced by the 20-day SMA, which now acts as a dynamic support zone. A break below this area could expose deeper corrective targets near 193.00, which is aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 192.97. Further bearish pressure could bring the 200-day SMA near 192.80 into focus, a level that may serve as a more significant support zone.