WTI Crude Oil posts largest weekly drop since March 2023

• WTI Crude Oil reports the largest weekly loss since March 2023.
• OPEC prepares to increase supply by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July, easing supply concerns
• WTI remains supported by the $64.00 psychological level, but easing tensions in the Middle East limit near-term gains.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has fallen sharply since reaching a high of $76.44 on Monday, with prices declining more than $10.00 per barrel this week.

With losses over the past five sessions rising above 12%, this marks the largest weekly decline since March 2023.

At the time of writing, WTI trades below $65.00 per barrel, with prices pressured by profit-taking and a significant shift in geopolitical sentiment.

Israel-Iran ceasefire holds as OPEC prepares to increase supply in July

Concerns about a potential supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz drove the rally that had pushed WTI near $77.00. However, with tensions in the Middle East easing and the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding, those concerns have largely abated.
According to a Reuters report citing Goldman Sachs options data, the market now assigns just a 4% probability of a supply disruption, leading traders to price WTI within a more stable $60-$69 range for the coming months.

Fundamentally, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories on Wednesday, the impact of this data has been limited.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to increase production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July. As a result, traders remain cautious about chasing prices higher, particularly in a macro environment where demand signals remain mixed.

WTI Crude Oil: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, WTI has found support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April decline at $64.18.
Immediate support now rests at the $64.00 psychological level, with a move lower opening the potential for a retest of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $63.35.
As long as supply concerns remain subdued, upside momentum appears limited, with the 100-day SMA providing short-term resistance around $65.45.

WTI Crude Oil daily chart

Above that sits the 50% retracement at $67.08, followed by the 200-day SMA at $68.29.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is tracking just below the neutral 50 mark, currently at 46, signaling a slight bearish bias.